Andrew Seidman „Easy Game” Reasons for Betting Part II

 

Chapter One: Reasons for Betting Part II

Last time we ended the section with a secret that reveals what makes the third reason for betting effective. Therefore, without delay, we repay our debt and add even more useful information.

Overall, this reason is obviously more complex than the previously mentioned ones. So what makes this mysterious third reason effective?

1. We force the opponent to fold their hand and leave their invested money in the pot. On a flop like A75r, where we have KQ, and our opponent has a hand like JT, our opponent still has 6 outs and a significant equity to complete their hand.

Therefore, forcing the opponent to fold and leave their invested money in the pot is a good choice.

An exception can be made if our opponent is a bluff-loving player and our hand is strong enough to call a potential bluff. If we check after the flop, our opponent will also check with hands that missed the flop and will bet with hands that form any pair or higher. So, if the opponent is not a bluff-loving player and our hand is not strong enough to catch bluffs, we simply cannot check. We will discuss this concept further in the section titled “Showdown Theory.”

2. Dead money compensates for situations where our opponent calls and we lose. Once, in high-stakes games, I had to play against a very well-known player nicknamed Cole, whose playing style can be described as extremely loose-aggressive. He was deep-stacked, in the CO (cut off) position, and played against an opponent in the button position. Cole raised, the opponent in the button position 3-bet, Cole 4-bet, the opponent in the button position 5-bet, and then Cole shoved all-in. The player in the button position folded, and Cole showed T9o. Obviously, in this situation, Cole did not shove all-in for value (it would be hard to get a call from 9 high). But we can't be sure that the opponent in the button position folded a strong hand because Cole is notorious as a loose-aggressive player – no one folds very strong hands against Cole. But he still raised. Why? Because when the opponent in the button position made the 5-bet, there was a lot of dead money in the pot. For Cole's all-in shove to be correct, a relatively small fold percentage from the opponent in the button position is enough.

The more aggressive the game becomes, the more often people start bluffing and putting their money in with weaker hands. This equates to a larger amount of dead money in the pot. In low-stakes games, a c-bet can be reason #3 for betting, as in this example where we hold (KQ on an A75r board). In such a situation, we choose a c-bet because, at this level, players rarely deviate from standard lines and will only raise with better hands. In high-stakes games, where the game is more aggressive, we must take advantage of dead money if we want to make a profit.

Moreover, reason #3 is very rarely (almost never) the primary reason for betting. In many cases, it can be used as a free aid to reasons #1 and #2. For example, let's say we have a nut flush draw, and the board is T♠8♠4♣K♣, and we decide to bet on the turn. So our decision to bet is driven by reason #2, we hope that the opponent will fold hands like JT or A8. The opponent may also have hands with which we would like to see them continue playing, such as a weaker flush draw. However, the fact is that the money is already in the pot, and we can force the opponent to fold a hand like JT, which is not the worst outcome. For the next example, let's take a situation where we have KT, and the board is T♠6♠5♣J♣. Betting again here might be slightly unprofitable (we will explain more about this in the section titled “Bet Sizing and Thin Value”). However, forcing the opponent to fold straight draws, flush draws, or any floats is also a suitable option, especially if we think that if we check, the opponent with a flush draw or straight draw will simply take a free card.

In general, dead money compensates for the “thinness” (low profitability) derived from reason #1 or reason #2. For example, a bluff might be too unprofitable (if the opponent calls our bluff too often) when the pot is 50bb. However, if the pot is 100bb, the bluff has more value because there is more dead money in the pot that we can win. To better understand, a bet with low value might be unprofitable when the pot is small, but in a large pot, dead money compensates for everything. The point is that we always bet for reason #1 or reason #2, but reason #3 is always related. Even if we raise pre-flop, we do it for value or as a bluff, but our raise is compensated by dead money – in this case, the dead money is the blinds.

So, what is the truth when players say they bet for hand protection? Isn't protection one of the reasons for betting?

The answer is NO – protection is a consequence of betting, not a reason. Let's say our hand is red QQ, and the board is Q♠T♠9♣. We bet for value because there are many worse hands in this situation that opponents will call our bet with or even raise. The fact that we charge draws and “protect” our hand is great, but that is not the real reason for our bet. Let's take another example and say we have 6♥6♦, and the board is Q♥9♥3♣. In this situation, we might bet to collect dead money, but certainly not to protect our hand. Almost all opponent draws against us in this situation are 50/50 or clear favorites (if we consider A♥J♥). The moral of the story is that when we have a set of queens, our hand needs protection, but first and foremost, what this hand needs is value. When we have a pair of sixes, our hand does not need protection because our hand looks quite silly against A♥J♥, considering that A♥J♥ is a clear favorite against us in this spot. Sometimes we might bet with 66 on a board like Q♥9♥3♣ and turn that bet into a thin bluff (against hands like 77 or 88) or bet for small value (against hands like A♥4♥), but most often in this situation, we will bet to collect dead money against hands like A♣T♣, which will have too few outs on such a flop to call our bet.

And what about betting for information? Let's say we have QJ on a board like QT5r and know that the opponent we are playing against is loose-passive. We bet for value. If the opponent calls our bet, we get information that our hand is likely the best in this situation, and we can continue betting for value. If the opponent raises, we have information that the opponent's hand is stronger than their usual range, and we should fold. However, even if we have to fold after making the bet, it is still a good decision because we bet for value. The real problem with betting for information arises when we make a bet with KK on a board like A22. Every time the opponent calls our bet, we are likely behind and lose the portion of money we bet (but more on that later). Every time the opponent decides to fold, we know we were the favorite. If the opponent plays perfectly and, generally speaking, makes no mistakes, we simply do not make money. If we make a bet for information instead of betting for one of the three reasons, we isolate ourselves with stronger hands and fold with weaker ones. In short, we make mistakes, and our opponents do not. And that is very bad.

However, let's try to review the situation again when we have KK, and the board is A22.

Let's start with two assumptions: 1) If we make a bet, our opponent will never call our bet with a worse hand and 2) If we check, our opponent will NEVER BLUFF! In this situation, betting to collect dead money is still a good choice. Let's say our opponent holds a hand like 44. If he never bluffs when we check, we give him intangible odds to hit a set. Therefore, in such a situation, making a bet and forcing the opponent to fold a pair of fours is a good decision, because the opponent will call or raise only when he expects to get value. Obviously, these two assumptions are not always indisputable; sometimes we can make a value bet with KK on a board like A22 against smaller pairs, and sometimes when we check, the opponent will decide to bluff like a madman. But we must remain conscious and use the dead money rule and understand well when this rule applies in such situations.

So, now we have three reasons. Therefore, every time you want to make a bet, ask yourself, “Why am I making this bet?” As soon as you realize that there are only three answers to this question, poker will take on a whole new meaning.

The series of articles is prepared based on Andrew Seidman's poker book: “Easy game”. Those who want to purchase the original, which is in English, can do so at balugawhale.com.

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