Betting tips

Sports Betting Strategies – Key Principles

Sports betting is the most popular form of wagering. Football and basketball alone account for more than 50% of all bets, leading to the development of profitable betting systems and sports betting strategies over time. There are many of these strategies, but they all rely on just a few principles.

All strategies are based on probability calculations and the concept of EV.

EV, simply put, is the calculation of whether a bet would be profitable in the long run. For example, if the amount is doubled, to profit from such a bet, it should occur more than 50% of the time.

Another important aspect of forming a betting strategy is implied probability. This concept indicates the probabilities assigned by the betting company. The most common and simplest way to calculate it: ((1/odds) * 100 = probability).

For clarity, we present one example:

• Bayern: 1.65
• Žalgiris: 2.45
• Overtime: 14.00
• Bayern winning probability: (1/1.65) * 100 = 60.6%
• Žalgiris winning probability: (1/2.45) * 100 = 40.8%
• Overtime: (1/14) * 100 = 7%

All probabilities add up to a number greater than 100%. Betting companies, obviously, need to earn by setting odds, so the sum of percentages is more than 100%. Sometimes the part exceeding 100 percent is called “juice” by bettors. The smaller this part, the better for the bettor.

After calculating these probabilities, it is easy to calculate the EV of each bet. It is recommended to choose a simple betting amount (for example, 10 euros) for easier calculation. To calculate the EV of any bet, bettors use the following formula:

(Profit gained in case of a win * probability) – (bet amount lost if not winning * probability of losing)

If the result is negative, it means the bet is -EV. Bettors making such bets will lose more money over time. Of course, every bettor should remember that probabilities are not objective but calculated by the company. Companies can also make mistakes, so those who are very knowledgeable about betting can find profitable -EV bets, but this should be reserved only for very high-level professionals.

The application of EV and probabilities is essential for profitable betting. Every professional must know these concepts by heart and be able to apply them in practice. EV and probability calculations will be applicable in all sports, e-sports, and other events.

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Betting Strategies, Types of Bets, and Money Management

Betting Strategies

All betting strategies, although based on probabilities and expected value (EV), are essentially the same. Betting seems like a simple field when viewed from afar. The main principle of a betting strategy is to gather information, process it properly, find bets with positive expected value (+EV), and have enough funds.

However, if everything were that simple, betting companies would quickly go bankrupt. Although the strategy may seem simple, delving into the details makes the situation more complex. Every bettor must constantly gather information about their chosen areas. You cannot expect to have a profitable betting strategy if all the information gathered is limited to just a few observed matches.

Types of Bets

Betting strategy is inseparable from various types of bets. You will find several of the same most popular bets in any sport. These types of bets are very popular for several reasons – good odds, simple EV calculation, and simplicity.

The most popular bets include:

• Winner bets: Bets where the winner of a match or competition is chosen.
• Total bets: The overall result of a competition, e.g., the total number of points scored.
• Handicap bets: A fictional point advantage is given to one of the teams to balance the match result. Handicap bets are among the most complex but also some of the most profitable. Betting companies often disagree on the true advantage of one team, so discrepancies can arise between the odds and advantages offered by different companies. Although calculations here are complex, analyzing all companies can reveal very good offers.

Money Management

Money management, also known as “bankroll management,” is one of the most important aspects of profitable betting. Since betting is a probability-based source of profit, you cannot expect to win all bets all the time. This means that long losing streaks can occur, even if the strategy is profitable. Therefore, it is essential to allocate a separate amount for betting and use only that.

For all future professionals in the betting field, it is recommended to have a second source of income for some time. This will reduce the burden of losses and provide the opportunity to return to betting later. Without a second source of money, betting can become a compulsive activity that is hard to step away from. Therefore, beginners are advised to have a financial cushion.

Betting Tips – A Few Simple Principles for Beginners

Although many betting beginners start betting for fun, those who want to earn from this field should follow a few simple but effective principles. These tips, while simplifying the betting strategy, are perfect for beginners who need clarity and simplicity.

1. Avoid letting emotions influence your bets

One of the biggest mistakes beginners make is placing bets based on emotions, especially when it involves favorite teams. Betting on your favorite team often leads to bias, which can result in poor decisions. Instead, choose matches that have no emotional aspect and make decisions based solely on objective information: statistics, team form, player condition, and other data. A cool head is essential in betting.

2. Take time for analysis before placing bets

It’s important for newcomers not to rush into placing bets. Professionals can afford to work with a larger number of profitable bets because they have the necessary knowledge and sufficient capital for the long term. Beginners should start with a few carefully considered bets. After each bet, analyze your choice, the reasons for winning or losing, and draw conclusions. This way, you will form your strategy, gain experience, and reduce the risk of losing money.

3. Treat betting as a long-term activity

In betting, a few random successful bets are not enough to be profitable. Professionals see betting as a long-term activity, where it’s important to constantly monitor your return on investment (ROI) and evaluate your efficiency. Therefore, newcomers should be prepared to spend a lot of time in this field. Before starting to bet, take time to gather information: learn about sports, teams, players, and analysis methods. Only then can you ensure consistent progress and avoid significant losses.

Betting – tips for gathering information

Information is the most important factor for successful betting. While many bets are made based on emotions or simply choosing a favorite team, such a tactic is usually only profitable for betting companies.

Information gathering can be divided into several main parts:

1. Area

First, choose a specific sport you want to bet on. Newcomers are recommended to focus on one sport. Even better – choose a specific tournament or league (e.g., only Euroleague or only NBA). By narrowing your choices, you will better understand the context and be able to evaluate bets more accurately.

2. Match selection

Professionals review all possible matches daily, but this is not necessary for newcomers. Beginners should look for potentially profitable matches, which may appear less frequently, perhaps only once a week. Quality over quantity is important – carefully select bets by evaluating information and context to form a disciplined strategy.

3. Understanding bet types and match context

The choice of bet types should be based on the match context. For example:

• Winner bet: Context is minimally important here, you just need to choose the winner.
• Total bet: The playing style of the teams is important. Aggressive, high-scoring teams are more likely to exceed the set point limit than defensive teams.
• Handicap bet: It’s important to assess not only the balance of power between the teams but also their playing style, defense, and offense efficiency.

Professionals also use specific bets, such as the total points until halftime or a team’s victory in individual quarters. In this case, the match context is also important – consider how teams play in the first part of the match, the offensive capabilities of the starting five, etc.

Betting, bets, predictions, and communities

To bet successfully, it’s useful to have access to various information sources – communities, advice from other professionals, and betting predictions. Nowadays, the internet provides many opportunities to easily find such communities. There are many Discord channels, websites, and forums where betting professionals share their experiences.

1. The benefits of communities

It’s important for both professionals and newcomers to belong to a betting community. The main benefits are:

• Discussions and strategies: The ability to share ideas and get advice from other experienced bettors will help you find profitable bets and improve your strategies.
• Emotional support: Long losing streaks can be emotionally challenging, but the community can help manage these emotions by sharing experiences and supporting each other.

2. How to find the right community

Finding a betting community is not difficult – a few searches on Google are enough. However, it’s important to pay attention to a few things:

• Avoid paid sites: Many websites offer paid betting information, promising “betting secrets” or “guaranteed profit.” Such sites often aim to profit from newcomers, so they should be avoided.
• Look for free sources: There are many free pages, channels, and chat rooms on the internet where you can find quality information without paying a cent.

3. Poker school recommendations

The poker school has a dedicated betting section where you can find free and constantly updated information. This should be the first source of information for newcomers, but professionals working seriously in the betting field are recommended to have multiple sources.

• Selection of information sources: Newcomers should consult with betting professionals about the best information sources, but if you want to do it independently, it’s recommended to find at least 10 websites, communities, or chat rooms. Over time, remember the least useful or least active ones, thus creating a small but valuable list of information sources.

Betting and profitable bets – a long journey

Although many betting companies and betting enthusiasts present this field as a quick way to earn a lot of money, the path to consistent earnings is usually long. The mindset that betting is a quick way to get rich only harms the bettor and makes money for the company.

Newcomers should not be intimidated by the fact that there is a lot of different information, mathematics, and other aspects necessary for profitable play. The more information a bettor has, the greater the chance of winning.

Of course, the path to profitable betting is not only long but also, perhaps, difficult. Every professional’s steps in this field were full of wrong bets or inaccurate calculations, but this happens to everyone.

Nowadays, it’s even easier for newcomers to start the path to profitable betting, as there are many guides, information sources, and professionals who can share their wisdom. It’s no longer necessary to find ways to outsmart the company on your own – everything can be found online.

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