Standard pattern in poker

You are sitting at the table. The opponent is sitting opposite, someone you've never seen before, so your first hand takes place. Your action.

We have all been in this situation thousands of times. However, we almost always forget how important this situation is. The first hand is the only situation in which you know absolutely nothing about your opponent, and yet you have to play against him. What do you do?

Of course, you do some things. You don't throw your hands in the air and say you are giving up. The way you behave is your standard pattern. The standard model is a mental model that he has constructed by averaging the players you have played with.

By studying your opponents, you slowly build up and build up your standard model, adjusting it slightly to incorporate other people's actions, their thought patterns, until you have a clear portrait of the average player in your mind. Of course, the more observant you are and the more experience you have, the more accurate your standard will be. In some respects, when you sit down at a new table with someone you don't know, whoever you are dealing with is not your real opponent. You are just looking at your standard model of an opponent. It is the standard model that you are playing against, that you have certain intentions for and that you are trying to read the hands of.

Let's imagine you see a player 3-bet on the first hand of the match and you fold. What can you conclude about this opponent? If we look exclusively at the HUD stats, we would see that his 3-bet frequency is 100%. And are you playing against him as if he 3-bets 100%? We all know that nobody 3-bets 100%, there are no such individuals in the poker playing population. Note that we do not use information about an opponent's actions to construct a model of his play, in which case it would be correct to conclude that he 3-bets 100%. Instead, his actions should be interpreted in terms of how the fraquencies are distributed over the entire population of players. In other words, we think about a wider range of players and use this information to construct a model of the opponent.

In statistics, this is known as Bayesian updating. Using the average 3-bet frequency, the standard deviation (how wide the distribution of 3-betting frequency is over the population) and a clue we are familiar with (one 3-bet), we can use Bayesian calculations to calculate the opponent's 3-bet frequency per 3-bet. If we tried to predict the number, it would be 1% or 2% higher than the average based on our event.

Playing against someone on the very first hand may not seem like such a big deal, but it's the start that determines how all our scans will work against the opponent. For every match, from the very first hand, we create a new standard pattern, just like a clay mould. So then, with each successive decision with which we observe the opponent, we start to give shape to that figure, slowly reshaping our model. After gathering a certain amount of information and experience, this model develops its own distinct personality. We begin to see his eyes, his jaws, and other various details that turn him into an individual.

It is very important to have a standard model that is as accurate as possible, because the more accurate it is, the better at the start you can predict your opponent's game. This is one of the most important skills for creating predictable patterns of play. Before you can model a specific player, you need to have a clear idea of what the average player looks like. World-class poker players have a good understanding of the most common leaks and weaknesses, and they use this information when playing with new players. It's a big part of every player's winrate. To build a standard model you need to play with as many players as possible and watch carefully what they do. Over time you will start to notice the most common patterns, flaws and assumptions that the average player makes. In the last article we talked about the fact that players often see in others a projection of themselves, which means that they see in others their own tendencies and perceptions. You are no exception. Every standard model you create will be somewhat based on your own game. Where you don't have a clear understanding of what is going on, you will see that people tend to make the same mistakes as you, think about some situations the same way as you do, have the same flow of the game and so on. Every one of your standard models will be like you to some extent. In situations that are off-centre, this projection is reinforced because you don't have enough valuable experience in such places. The only solution is to be extremely attentive and to remain open to the idea that competitors do not always think like you.

As we have already mentioned, the standard model is continuously updated. But you may also notice that there are multiple standard models. After the initial model has been used, and after noticing that the opponent is quite aggressive or passive, you can change your standard model into an aggressive or passive standard model game, constantly changing it according to the situation. Until your scans become more and more accurate, and you finally have your own individual opponent model. Each of these models is still based on a projection of your own game, so keep that in mind. The most important thing is that the analysis and re-modelling starts with the initial model of the opponent that you have assigned to him, which comes from your experience with the average player.

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