You are sitting at the table. The opponent is sitting across from you, someone you have never seen before, so this is your first hand. Your move.
We have all been in this situation thousands of times. However, we almost always forget how important this situation is. The first hand is the only situation where you know absolutely nothing about your opponent, and yet you have to play against him. What do you do in such a case?
Of course, you take some actions. You won't just throw your hands in the air and say you give up. The way you act is your standard model. The standard model is a mentally constructed model that you have created by averaging the players you have played against.
By studying your opponents, you slowly accumulate and form your standard model, slightly adjusting it by incorporating the actions of other people, their thought patterns, until you have a clear portrait of the average player in your mind. Naturally, the more observant and experienced you are, the more accurate your standard will be. In a sense, when you sit down at a new table with someone you don't know, what you are facing is not your real opponent. You are simply looking at your standard opponent model. This is the standard model you play against, to which you assign certain intentions and whose hands you try to read.
Imagine you see a player who 3-bets in the first hand of the match and you fold. What conclusion can you draw about this opponent? If we look exclusively at HUD statistics, we would see that his 3-bet frequency is 100%. But would you play against him as if he 3-bets 100%? We all know that no one 3-bets 100%; such individuals do not exist in the poker player population. Note that we do not use information about the opponent's actions to construct his playing model, because in that case, it would be correct to conclude that he 3-bets 100%. Instead, his actions should be interpreted according to how frequencies are distributed across the entire player population. In other words, we think about a broader circle of players and use this information to construct the opponent's model.
In statistics, this is known as Bayesian updating. Using the average 3-bet frequency, the standard deviation (how wide the distribution of 3-bet frequency is across the population), and the evidence we are familiar with (one 3-bet), we can use Bayesian calculations to estimate the opponent's 3-bet frequency for one 3-bet. If we tried to predict a number, it would be 1% or 2% higher than the average, based on our event.
It may seem that playing against someone in the very first hand is not such a big problem, but it is the beginning that determines how all our reads will work against the opponent. In every match from the very first hand, we create a new standard model, much like a figurine made of clay. So later, with each subsequent decision as we observe the opponent, we begin to shape this figurine, gradually reshaping our model. After gathering a certain amount of information and experience, this model develops its own personality. We start to see its eyes, jaws, and other various details that turn it into an individual.
It is very important to have as accurate a standard model as possible because the more accurate it is, the better you will be able to predict the opponent's game at the beginning 
. This is one of the most important skills for creating predictable player game models. Before you can model a specific player's model, you need to have a clear idea of what the average player looks like. World-class poker players are well aware of the most common leaks, weaknesses, and use this information when playing with new players. This is a large part of every player's win rate. To create a standard model, you need to play with as many players as possible and carefully observe what they do. Over time, you will start to notice the most common patterns, weaknesses, and assumptions that the average player makes. In the previous article, we talked about how players often see their own projection in others, meaning they see their own tendencies and perceptions in another person. You are no exception. Every standard model you create will be somewhat based on your own game. Where you do not fully understand what is happening, you will see that people tend to make the same mistakes as you, think about certain situations the same way you do, have the same game flow, and so on. Every standard model you create will be somewhat similar to you. In situations that are far from the center, this projection becomes even stronger because you do not have enough valuable experience in such places. The only way out is to be extremely attentive and remain open to the idea that opponents do not always think the way you do.
As we mentioned, the standard model is constantly being updated. But you may also notice that you have multiple standard models. After using the initial model and noticing that the opponent is quite aggressive or passive, you can switch your standard model to an aggressive or passive standard model game, constantly adjusting it according to the situation. Until your reads become more and more accurate, and until you finally have your individual opponent model. Each of these models is still based on your own game projection, so keep that in mind. The most important thing is that the analysis and remodeling start from the initial opponent model you assigned to him, which arose from your experience with the average player.
