Betting tips

Sports Betting Strategies - Basic Principles

Sports betting is the most popular form of betting. With football and basketball alone accounting for more than 50% of all bets, profitable betting systems and sports betting strategies have been developed over time. There are many of these strategies, but they are all based on just a few principles.

All strategies are based on probability calculations and the concept of EV.

EV, in simple terms, is a calculation of whether a bet would be profitable in the long term. For example, if the amount is doubled, the bet would have to occur more than 50% times to be profitable.

Another important aspect of betting strategy is implied probability. This term refers to the probabilities assigned by the betting company. ((1/coefficient) * 100 = probability).

For the sake of clarity, here is one example:

• Bayern: 1.65 
• Zalgiris: 2.45
• Extension: 14.00
• Bayern's probability of winning: (1/1,65) * 100 = 60,6%
• Zalgiris' probability of winning: (1/2,45) * 100 = 40,8%
• Extension: (1/14) * 100 = 7%

All probabilities add up to a number greater than 100%. Betting companies obviously need to make money by compiling the odds, so the percentages add up to more than 100%. Sometimes the fraction exceeding 100 per cent is referred to by gamblers as "juice". The lower the percentage, the better for the gambler.

Once these probabilities have been calculated, it is easy to calculate the EV of each bet. It is recommended to choose a simple bet amount (e.g. €10) to make the calculation easier. To calculate the EV of any bet, gamblers use the following formula:

(Profit in case of winning * probability) - (Amount bet lost in case of losing * probability of losing)

If the result is negative, it means the bet is -EV. Gamblers making such bets will lose more and more money over time. Of course, it is worth remembering that the probabilities are not objective, but calculated by the company. Companies can also make mistakes, so it is possible to find profitable -EV bets if you have a very good knowledge of betting, but this should be reserved for professionals of a very high standard.

EV and probability application are essential concepts for profitable betting. Every professional must know these concepts by heart and be able to apply them in practice. EV and probability calculations will be applied to all sports, e-sports and other events.

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Betting strategies, bet types and money management

Betting strategies

All betting strategies, although based on probabilities and expected value (EV), are essentially the same. Betting appears to be a simple area when viewed from a distance. The basic principle of a betting strategy is to gather information, process it properly, find bets with a positive expected value (+EV) and have sufficient funds.

But if it were that simple, betting companies would quickly go bankrupt. While the strategy may seem simple, it gets more complicated as you get into the details. Every gambler needs to continuously gather information about his or her chosen fields. One cannot expect to have a profitable betting strategy if all the information gathered is limited to a few matches watched.

Types of bets

Betting strategy is inseparable from the different types of bets. In many places you will find some of the same popular bets on any given sport. These types of bets are extremely popular for a number of reasons - good odds, easy EV calculation and simplicity.

Popular bets include:

• Winner's bets: bets that pick the winner of a match or event.
• Total bets: the total result of the match, e.g. the total number of points scored.
• Handicap betting: one of the teams is given a fictitious point advantage to balance the outcome of the match. Handicap betting is one of the most difficult, but also one of the most profitable. Betting companies often disagree on the true advantage of one team, which can lead to discrepancies between the odds and advantages offered by different companies. Although the calculations here are complex, it is possible to find very good offers by analysing all companies.

Money management

Money management, also known as "bankroll management", is one of the most important aspects of profitable betting. As betting is a probability-based source of profit, it cannot be expected that all bets will always be won. This means that there may be long losing streaks, even if the strategy is profitable.It is therefore necessary to allocate a separate amount for betting and to use only that amount.

It is recommended that all future betting professionals have a second source of income for at least some time. This will reduce the burden of losses and give you the opportunity to return to betting later. Without a second source of money, betting can become a compulsive activity from which it is difficult to withdraw. It is therefore recommended that beginners have a financial cushion.

Betting tips - some simple principles for newcomers

While many new bettors start betting for fun, it is important for those who want to make a profit in this field to follow a few simple but effective principles. These tips, while simplifying betting strategy, are perfect for newcomers who need clarity and simplicity.

1. Avoid emotions influencing bets

One of the biggest mistakes newcomers make is betting on emotions, especially when it comes to their favourite teams. When betting on your favourite team, you often succumb to biases that can lead to poor decisions. Rather, choose matches that have no emotional aspect and make your decisions based on objective information only: statistics, team form, players' condition and other data. A cool head is essential in betting.

2. Take time to analyse your bets before placing them

For newcomers, it is important not to rush into placing bets. Professionals can afford to work with a higher volume of profitable bets because they have the necessary knowledge and sufficient capital for the long term. Beginners should start with a few carefully considered bets. After each bet, analyse your choices, the reasons for winning or losing and draw conclusions. In this way, you will shape your strategy, gain experience and reduce the risk of losing money.

3. Treat betting as a long-term activity

In betting, a few random successful bets are not enough to make you profitable. Professionals see betting as a long-term activity where it is important to constantly monitor your return on investment (ROI) and evaluate your performance. Therefore, newcomers should be prepared to spend a lot of time in this area. Before you start betting, take the time to gather information: take an interest in sports, teams, players and analysis methods. This is the only way to ensure consistent progress and avoid big losses.

Bets - tips for gathering information

Information is the most important factor for successful betting. Although many bets are made on the basis of emotion or simply by selecting a favourite team, such tactics are usually only profitable for the betting companies.

The collection of information can be divided into several main parts:

1. Scope

First, choose the specific sport you want to bet on. For newcomers, it is recommended to focus on one sport. Better still, choose a specific tournament or league (e.g. Euroleague only or NBA only). By narrowing down your choices, you will better understand the context and be able to assess your bets more accurately.

2. Event selection

Professionals look at all available events on a daily basis, but this is not necessary for newcomers. Beginners should look for potentially profitable events that may appear less frequently, perhaps only once a week. Quality, not quantity, is important - choose your bets carefully, assessing information and context to form a disciplined strategy.

3. Understanding of bet types and the context of events

The choice of bet types must be based on the context of the event. For example:

• Winner's bet: Context is of minimal importance here, it's just a matter of choosing the winner.
• Total bet: The style of play of the teams is important. Aggressive, scoring teams are more likely to exceed the points limit than defensive teams.
• Betting on Advantage: It is important to assess not only the balance of power between the teams, but also their style of play, defensive and offensive efficiency.

Professionals also use specific bets, such as the amount of points before the long break or the team's victory in individual games. In this case, the context of the match is also important - the way the teams play in the first half, the attacking abilities of the starting five, etc. should be taken into account.

Betting, stakes, predictions and communities

To bet successfully, it is useful to have access to various sources of information - communities, advice from other professionals and betting predictions. Nowadays, the internet provides many opportunities to easily find such communities. There are many Discord channels, websites and forums where betting professionals share their experiences.

1. Benefits of communities

It is important for both professionals and newcomers to be part of the betting community. The main advantages are:

• Discussions and strategies: The opportunity to share ideas and get tips from other experienced gamblers will help you find profitable bets and improve your strategies.
• Emotional support: Long stretches of failure can be emotionally difficult, but the community can help manage these emotions by sharing experiences and supporting each other.

2. How to find the right community

Finding the betting community is easy - just a few Google searches. However, it is important to note a few things:

• Avoid paid websites: Many websites offer paid betting information, promising "betting secrets" or "guaranteed profits". Such sites are often only interested in profiting from newcomers and should be avoided.
• Search for free sources: There are many free sites, channels and chat rooms on the internet where you can find quality information without paying a penny.

3. Poker School Recommendations

The Poker School has a dedicated betting section where you can find free and regularly updated information. This should be the first source of information for newcomers, but for serious betting professionals it is recommended to have several sources.

• Selection of sources of information: For newcomers, it is a good idea to consult betting professionals for the best sources of information, but if you want to do it on your own, it is recommended that you find at least 10 websites, communities or chat rooms. Over time, keep track of the worst or least active ones, thus compiling a small but valuable list of information sources.

Betting and profitable bets - a long way off

Although many betting companies and betting enthusiasts present this field as a quick way to make a lot of money, the road to steady earnings is usually a long one. Thinking that betting is a quick way to get rich only hurts the gambler and makes money for the company.

Newcomers should not be daunted by the fact that there are many different pieces of information, mathematics and other aspects that are necessary for a profitable game. The more information in the hands of the gambler, the greater the chance of winning.

Of course, the road to profitable betting is not only long, but also, perhaps, difficult. Every professional's steps in this field have been full of wrong bets or miscalculations, but it happens to everyone.

Nowadays, it is even easier for newcomers to get started on the path to profitable betting, as there are many guides, information sources and professionals who can share their wisdom. It is no longer necessary to find ways to play the company yourself - everything can be found online.

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