Introduction

In this article, you will learn:

How to correctly interpret statistics
Why it is important to consider context when relying on statistics
The dangers of statistics based on the number of hands played

In the previous article, you learned about the levels of statistics and the pyramid system and which statistics depend on which. The importance of the number of hands played for statistics and the principles of interpreting statistics were also explained. Earlier, I wrote about the basics of poker statistics and their significance and benefits.

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In this part, we will delve deeper into statistics, learn how to interpret them, and understand how to correctly consider the number of hands played. Additionally, you will learn what the interpretation chain is.

After reading this article, you will understand why certain statistics, having the same value, can create a completely different image of an opponent. Depending on the context, you can interpret the value of statistics in different ways. In the examples provided in this article, factors such as hand history, reads, or the cards on the table that influence your decisions will not be discussed.

You might ask why? Because you need to familiarize yourself with the entire thought process, how everything works, i.e., try to understand various formulas and numbers, rather than relying on your intuition.

Two-Level Interpretation

To interpret the statistics of poker software (e.g., PokerTracker 4 or HoldemManager 2) in a particular situation, you need to form a complex chain of interpretations. This means that you interpret statistics in each betting round, where each interpretation has two levels. At the first level, you need to check the relationship of the statistic with other relevant statistics.

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At the second level, you interpret the results based on the current situation. This includes the previous interpretations and the remaining betting rounds. Essentially, the second level is the actual interpretation of the conclusion you made earlier about the statistic. This level also includes the overall context (cards on the table, hand history, table dynamics, reads, meta-game, etc.), so always pay attention to the current situation.

First level: forming the context chain

You need to examine a certain number of statistics, considering other important statistics in the same or other betting rounds.

Second level: interpreting the context chain in the game situation

After completing everything, you have a node of the interpretation chain for one betting round. If this sounds a bit unclear, let me explain further. If you are playing on the flop, you usually base your decisions on the actions that occurred pre-flop. On the turn, you base your decisions on the actions that occurred pre-flop and on the flop, and so on. Thus, each betting round is like a node, and these nodes form a complex interpretation chain.

The image you see below illustrates the structure of the interpretation chain. As you can see, each box (or node) connects to the next box. This shows that when making a decision, you need to rely not only on the statistics from previous betting rounds but also pay attention to the upcoming betting rounds.

Why Do We Need to Interpret Statistics? Is It Necessary?

Poker is and always will be a game where you do not have all the information you need, despite having all the statistics right in front of you. A player's mood, tilt, distraction, and other factors can make them play completely differently than they usually would. Therefore, depending on the type of player, it is often dangerous to rely solely on statistics.

So, not only the dealt cards but also the opponents' playing styles influence the variation. However, based on statistics, you can see what the average playing style of a particular player is.

Experienced players can predict what kind of cards a player has just by observing and analyzing their play. They see how often the opponent likes to take risks in certain situations, whether they are tilting, whether they have played against each other or other players at the table, whether they are in good or bad form, etc.

Therefore, when interpreting statistics, you should always consider these meta-game factors if your playing style or the limits you play allow it.

So, as you can see, to rely on statistics, you need to consider many things. And the stronger your opponents are and the further you move away from ABC poker, the more important all these factors become.

Now let's delve into the structured thought process: the interpretation chain.

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The Interpretation Chain and Opponent's Hand Range

What is the interpretation chain?

In previous articles, we superficially reviewed statistics, but now you will learn how they connect to each other.

Interpretation chains do not have a fixed definition – they need to be formed each time, depending on the opponent, situation, and the number of hands played. The examples you will see below are provided so that next time you sit at the tables, you can form the interpretation chain yourself.

The interpretation chain will not only help you draw conclusions about the betting round you are currently in but also assist you in forming a plan for your hand in later betting rounds, i.e., what actions you plan to take in certain situations in later betting rounds with your hand.

The main rule here is to focus on the opponent's actions when you are in position and pay attention to the opponent's reaction when you are out of position.

Statistics in context

Based on statistics, you also need to consider the context, i.e., pay attention to other important statistics on which other statistics depend.

First-level statistics VPIP and PFR are a great example where these statistics are closely related to each other and at the same time allow you to infer the opponent's pre-flop playing style and the opponent's hand range on the flop (of course, we will repeat once again, but you can rely on statistics only when you have played enough hands). By subtracting PFR from VPIP, you get the opponent's calling range.

Example No.1:

Pre-flop: VPIP – PFR – calling range

What to pay attention to:

The smaller the difference between VPIP and PFR (e.g., an opponent with 18/16), the…

more aggressively the opponent plays with their hands pre-flop.
more often the opponent has the initiative on the flop.
less often the opponent makes passive calls pre-flop and the smaller their calling range.

The larger the difference between VPIP and PFR (e.g., an opponent with 20/10), the…

more passively the opponent plays pre-flop.
less often the opponent has the initiative on the flop.
more often the opponent makes passive calls pre-flop and the larger their calling range.

These three statistics clearly show how they are related and what conclusions you can draw about the opponent's hand range on the flop.

All these relationships are a very important aspect when interpreting statistics in context.

These connections form a long chain of relationships where everything can be interpreted differently, i.e., depending on previous interpretations, you can draw completely different conclusions when the statistical values are the same. This is the main principle of the context chain.

However, always remember: even if you have all these statistics in front of you, poker is still a game where you will never have all the information you need.

Based on the basic first-level pre-flop statistical interpretations, in this example, we will show the second level of the context chain, i.e., important flop statistics.

Flop: cbet – fold to cbet – raise cbet – AF – WTS

What to pay attention to:

The more aggressively the opponent plays pre-flop, the more often they are in a situation where they can cbet on the flop.
The more passively the opponent plays pre-flop, the more often they are in a situation where their opponent cbets on the flop.
The more aggressively (AF) the opponent plays, the more often they will bet on the flop.
The more passively (AF) the opponent plays, the less often they will bet on the flop.
The higher the opponent's WTS (Went To Showdown), the less often they will fold their cards on the flop.
The lower the opponent's WTS, the more often they will fold their cards on the flop.

These basic principles are probably not new to you. However, by using the interpretation chain, you can now make quite complex conclusions on the flop. Many players have their own playing style, which they rarely deviate from. The worse the player, the more faithful they are to their playing style. So you can always notice when an opponent makes a move that is not typical of their playing style.

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Example No.2:

Let's take two very similar situations. You play a hand against opponent A and another hand against opponent B. The opponents make the same raises from the MP position, and you call the raise from the BU position with a pocket pair. On the flop, you are in position, and both opponents make a continuation bet. Now you have to interpret the continuation bet statistics. To do this, you need to use the context chain.

Both opponent A (18/16) and opponent B (20/10) have a continuation bet statistic of 75%. Now think about what this value, which is the same for both opponents, says about their hand ranges if you rely on the previously discussed basic interpretation principles on the flop and pre-flop.

Opponent A (18/16, 75% cbet)
Opponent B (20/10, 75% cbet)

Since opponent A plays more aggressively pre-flop and is much more likely to make a continuation bet, their hand range in this situation is not very limited. Meanwhile, opponent B is more passive pre-flop, which means they bet and raise less often. Therefore, opponent B will usually have a stronger hand range in such situations than opponent A. Compare PFR 10% and PFR 16%. Opponent B will bluff less often when making a continuation bet, even though both opponents have the same numerical cbet statistics.

This simple example clearly shows how identical isolated statistics (in this case, the cbet statistic with a numerical value of 75%) are interpreted differently and how they can lead to different conclusions about the strength of the opponent's hand range. So, as you can see, in such cases, you always need to consider other statistics as well.

Of course, you need to pay attention not only to the cbet statistic value but also to other important flop interpretation level statistics to have a plan for the next betting rounds. So, you should already be thinking about how you want to play this hand based on the interpretations made on the flop.

Opponent A (18/16, 75% cbet, AF 3.0, WTS 35%)
Opponent B (20/10, 75% cbet, AF 1.5, WTS 50%)

Since in this case, opponent B is usually more passive, it means you will get less action from them, e.g., semi-bluffs, etc. Since opponent B, having made a cbet on the flop, usually has a stronger hand range than opponent A, another continuation bet on the turn from opponent B should look much more serious than another bet on the turn from opponent A.

If we now interpret the numerical cbet value but also include AF and WTS statistics, usually opponent B, whose cbet flop statistic is 75%, but AF is only 1.5, will be the most aggressive on the flop.

In this case, your plan on the turn should be: if opponent B gives more action on the turn, you will fold your pocket pair, or you can check in position to get a free card, you can also float, but this will not always be a good idea because the opponent's WTS is 50%. It is worth mentioning that in such a case, you can also rely on other statistics when making a decision, e.g., turn cbet or flop AF and turn AF.

As you know, the higher the level of statistics, the more hands need to be played. So to rely on such statistics as turn cbet, do not forget that the number of hands played must be of an appropriate size.

All these considerations are purely based on first-level statistics, but we will briefly explain how everything should be interpreted based on second-level statistics.

As you saw in the previous example, AF and WTS statistics are very useful on the flop, but they indicate general values that are not dependent solely on the flop. It can be said that high AF and low WTS or low AF and high WTS statistics correlate with each other. This is because aggressive players more often win hands using fold equity and not going to showdown, which reduces the WTS statistic.

When interpreting AF and WTS statistics, it is very important to also consider first-level pre-flop statistics (VPIP, PFR, calling range), because, as you probably know, the WTS statistic is related to the flop hand range.

What to pay attention to based on the WTS statistic:

The higher the WTS statistic, the larger the opponent's hand range at showdown.
The smaller the opponent's flop hand range, the larger their hand range at showdown with the same WTS.
The larger the opponent's hand range on the flop, the weaker their hand range will be at showdown with the same WTS.
The higher the AF, the lower the WTS.
The lower the AF, the higher the WTS.

Next article: Statistics in Poker – Second Level Interpretation.