Poker Statistics – Basics (I) - PokerioMokykla.com

Introduction

In this article, you will learn:

How statistics are useful at poker tables
What problems you should be aware of
Different levels of statistics and their structure

What is statistics (eng. stats)?

Statistics – simply put, is various statistical information that you collect and save in your poker database using various poker programs (e.g., PokerTracker 4 or HoldemManager 2).

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Although the amount of information you get from statistics is limited, you can still often rely on statistics in various situations. With this article, we begin a series of articles about statistics, their aspects, and how to use them correctly. You will learn which statistics depend on each other and how correct interpretation of statistics helps make important decisions at the tables.

So, first, we will learn about the basics of statistics and how different statistics depend on each other. Later, we will focus on the interpretation of statistics, the correlation of individual statistics, and the impact of the number of hands played against opponents. Moreover, you will see how you can predict what your opponent is thinking based on statistics.

Why do we use statistics?

Players use statistics to predict the opponent's hand range and how likely you are to win with your hand against theirs. Statistics also help identify the type of player and see their playing tendencies.

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What can't statistics do?

Statistics are just simple numbers – remember that. This means that these numbers indicate how the opponent usually behaves in a certain situation, e.g., how often they raise or call before the flop.

Statistics help you notice player tendencies. However, there are other factors that influence your opponent's decision. If you rely solely on statistics and ignore other details, all this can lead you to wrong decisions.

So, while playing, you won't always base your decision solely on statistics. Statistics are just part of the information about the opponent, so you have to integrate this part into the overall context. Therefore, never base your decision solely on these numbers.

What statistics tell and what they don't

Looking at a certain statistic, you combine two things: you take the numerical value of the statistic and use it to try to predict the opponent's hand range. Generally speaking, statistics cannot tell anything about the opponent's hand range, no matter how strange it sounds. For example, if your opponent's 3-bet statistic is 5%, it simply means that this player 3-bet 5% of their played hands. Nothing more.

So, as you can see, such a statistic tells us nothing about the opponent's hand range; it only indicates how often the opponent performs a certain action. This is a very important thing you need to understand.

Thus, statistics specifically indicate the frequency of a certain action or reaction. Statistics do not directly indicate the strength of the opponent's hand range.

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Traps you may encounter when using statistics

The numerical value of statistics does not take into account the overall context

Every situation in poker (and this applies to both you and your opponents) depends on many factors. For example, playing style, emotional state, reads, history, other players in the hand, table dynamics, position, image, limits, etc. Since all these factors differ in each hand, they inevitably influence the opponent's decisions in one way or another.

As you have understood, the decision made in each situation depends not only on the two cards dealt to you. This applies to both you and your opponent.

Such statistics represent just simple numbers, without considering the overall context, i.e., for example, these statistics do not take into account your meta game. So, this is another aspect you should pay attention to.

A great example of this is the “continuation bet flop” statistic. This statistic tells you how often the opponent will make a continuation bet when they are the pre-flop aggressor. Of course, the opponent will consider the cards on the table, their position, the number of players in the pot, etc., before making a continuation bet. So, before making a decision, they will consider how many opponents are in the pot, what their statistics are, whether they have any reads on the opponents, etc.

Just looking at this statistic, without any context, we cannot say whether the opponent finds the situation cbet the flop often favorable. This statistic tells you nothing about the situation in which the opponent made the continuation bets, so again, you should not rely solely on the numbers.

Therefore, based on this statistic, we cannot say that the opponent will make a continuation bet in all cases, against any number of opponents, with the frequency indicated by this statistic. If you want to use statistics correctly, you need to pay attention to other factors as well.

The best approach is to adapt by looking at the statistics and considering the overall context. This is called the “interpretation” of statistics. The interpretation of statistics is another important thing we will talk about in the second part of this article.

EXAMPLE:

The opponent makes a continuation bet on the flop 70% of the time. If the opponent is in position and the flop is AQ7 rainbow, they will usually c-bet more than 70% of the time against their opponent. If the opponent is out of position and the flop is and there are several players in the pot, they will c-bet much less than 70% of their hands.

Based on statistics and considering the overall situation, you can make much more accurate decisions. The most important thing is to understand that with each statistic, you have to adapt to the situation – in other words, you have to interpret the statistic.

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“Top range syndrome”

Remember that example where the opponent 3-bets 5% of the time. You probably imagine that they 3-bet the top 5% of their hand range. However, this statement is not correct. This is because poker is a game where you cannot know everything about your opponents since you cannot see their cards.

As you already know, the 3-bet statistic represents the frequency of this action, but it does not indicate the strength of the opponent's 3-bet hand range. This means that you simply know that the opponent 3-bets 5% of their hands pre-flop, but this does not automatically mean that it is the top 5% of hands they can have. Maybe the opponent likes to slow play KK+? Or maybe they never 3-bet AK because “they might not see an A or K on the board.” Do they know what light 3-betting is? Are they trying to isolate themselves from certain players who play with bad hands? Or maybe they like to win the hand pre-flop against certain opponents by creating the right fold equity?

A player may also have other reasons for 3-betting that have nothing to do with the cards they hold. You should do the same – and you can assume that other players follow this principle as well.

As you can see, sometimes you can form a misleading opinion about statistics and think that they tell you completely different things about the opponent than they should.

When looking at statistics, it is also very important to consider the size of the card range, i.e., the number of possible hand combinations, and the strength of the card range, i.e., the number of possible hand combinations that are strong, depending on the cards on the table. A small card range does not necessarily mean that the opponent will only have strong hands. The same goes for a large card range – it does not mean that the opponent will only have weak hands.

“No sample size syndrome”

So far, the biggest mistake players make when looking at statistics is that they do not consider how many hands have been played against the opponent. The fewer hands played against the opponent, the worse it is. Especially when the player also has the “top range syndrome,” as then most players tend to make completely illogical conclusions about the opponent's card range.

This is a paradoxical mistake. Poker players usually rely on statistics, having played a thousand or even more hands against the opponent. However, other players think that after playing just a few hands against another player, they can rely on statistics. This is a major flaw in their game.