Andrew Seidman „Easy Game” – Bet Sizes and Thin Value Part I

Chapter Four: Bet Sizes and Thin Value

After the last article about the use of aggression and its cessation in different situations, we present the next dose of information from Andrew Seidman's book “Easy Game”.

Now we have a general understanding of when and why we need to remain aggressive – this is the correct assessment of (pot equities) and (fold equities). So, how do we know what bet size to choose in different situations? In No Limit Hold 'em, we have countless bet size options.

For a long time, there were standard bet sizes in poker. The most acceptable of these was a “Pot-sized” bet on the flop, between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot on the turn, and between 1/2 and 2/3 size bet on the river. It can be assumed that such bet sizes were chosen because it was believed that opponents would more often call a small bet but not a large one on the river. This is the classic “I don't want to scare him” thinking. This is complete nonsense.

Most players' decisions to call or not to call, raise or check are based on two main reasons:

1) Their cards. Most players do not want to fold AA on a board like JT9, such a board is usually more favorable to opponents than their combination and will see a lot of action, but wait! They have aces! And they simply cannot fold, even though the probability that they are ahead in this situation is very low.

2) Board texture. QQ usually has a really good chance to make money as an overpair, but it quickly devalues if an A or K appears among the community cards.

Faced with such situations, the bet size scenario becomes very broad. If we chose a $2 bet in an $800 pot, it is probably obvious to everyone that none of the opponents would fold their combinations. And if we chose an $800 bet in a $2 pot, no one would call the bet without nuts combinations. But let's forget the previous examples and imagine that the pot size is $50. If the opponent has a good enough combination to call a $35 value bet, why wouldn't they call a $36 bet? $38? $42? $48? If you think there is a slightly higher probability that the opponent will fold to a $48 bet than to a $35 bet, it is still usually worth betting $45. The extra money we earn when the opponent calls a higher value bet compensates for those few additional cases when the opponent would have called a $35 bet. So in cases where you are trying to extract value, place higher value bets.

Sometimes our value bets will not be so easy and simple. If we have JJ on a board like T54J5, it is very easy and simple to make a value bet in such a situation. But what if in an identical situation we had not JJ, but AT? Or T9? In all three situations, there is a high chance that we have the best card combination and can bet for value. If we make a value bet in the mentioned situation holding JJ, we can feel confident because all the opponent's combinations that can call our bet are worse than our combination. Therefore, we can draw maximum value without any fear. Holding AT, we must remember that some opponent combinations that can call our value bet will be ahead of our combination (e.g., AJ, KJ, QJ, etc.), but we cannot forget that some of them will be worse (e.g., KT, QT, T9, T8). Holding a combination like T9, there are very few worse combinations that opponents might potentially call our value bet with, usually such combinations as T8, 99, 88. So, if we choose a significantly too large bet size with T9, such that the opponent folds combinations like 88, gradually such a bet becomes bad, we cannot get a call from worse combinations and force better ones to fold. For this reason, we must choose a bet size that ensures the opponent will call with a worse combination. Therefore, in the previously described situation, holding T9, it is advisable to choose a very small value bet, such as 1/5 of the pot. Holding AT, we can choose a slightly larger value bet, such as 1/2 of the pot. This concept is known as thin value.

In the second part, we will discuss the concept of thin value in more detail, its importance, benefits, and drawbacks. Stay tuned for the continuation!

The series of articles is prepared based on Andrew Seidman's poker book: “Easy game”. Those who want to purchase the original, which is in English, can do so at balugawhale.com.

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