Andrew Seidman “Easy Game” – Aggression and the Fourth Card “Turn”

Chapter Three: Aggression and the Fourth Card “Turn”

Let's return to the previous article, where we hold A♠6♠, and the board shows 9♠7♦3♣Q♠. This is an ideal time to continue playing aggressively. Why?

The fourth card that has been revealed is ideal for us from many perspectives. First, it gives us additional outs – we now have twelve outs, whereas with A6o we would only have three remaining outs. Second, Q♠ is an uncoordinated overcard to the flop, giving us additional fold equity; in this situation, the opponent will be much more cautious about continuing to bet, especially if holding something like 88. This combination, comparing our good chances to win the pot (pot equity) and our fold equity, simply forces us to continue playing aggressively when the fourth card is revealed. Here's a small equation to help you quickly and easily understand how to calculate the ratio of pot size to fold equity.

WINNING EQUITY + FOLD EQUITY = AGGRESSION

Sometimes we will have so much winning equity that we won't need a lot of fold equity. Let's say we have Q♥J♥, and the flop is T♥9♥2♣4♦. We have the possibility to complete a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw, so our hand is so strong that it's enough for the opponent to fold just a small part of their entire range when we make a continuation bet for this action to be profitable. On the other hand, let's consider another situation where we hold 22, and the flop is 743Ar. The ace that appears on the turn gives us so much fold equity that our small winning chance with this hand is compensated by the fact that our opponent folds an enormous percentage of their hands. This is why many situations are not so simple to play. What if we have A♠5♠ and the flop is 9♠7♦3♣T♠? Our pot equity is decent, but the turn card reduces our fold equity because it completes many possible combinations in the opponent's range. Even a hand like 88 has a very low fold percentage on the turn because it opens up the possibility of completing a straight. The ability to weigh the ratio of our hand's winning equity and fold equity is an essential task for a poker player.

As soon as we understand that we have a good enough hand with a good winning equity and fold equity ratio, we can continue playing aggressively. This usually means continuing to bet, as this is often our plan when we have a strong hand instead of a draw. However, in some situations, it is better to check-raise on the turn. What are the determining factors that make check-raising better than a second barrel?

1. Our opponent rarely has a strong hand. Let's say we have A♣5♣. If we bet on a flop like 8♣7♣4♥ and our opponent calls, we can often be sure that the opponent does not have a strong hand like 88, 77, 44, 65, or 87, because with such hands, the opponent would usually raise. The hands we could most likely assign to the opponent's calling range are those like T9, J9, and A5, which are for completing a straight draw; hands like 86, 76, and 55 for pairs and gutshots; hands like A8 or 97 for weak pairs; hands like Q♣J♣ or K♣T♣ for flush draws. Finally, hands like AJ or KQ are used to potentially take the pot on the turn. Categorizing these hands accordingly, our opponent can have hands like straight draws, pair + straight draws, weak pairs, flush draws, and (air or nothing). With each of these hands, the opponent can float on the flop. Only the last category is assigned to hands that play poorly on the flop because such a hand does not form any pair or strong draw.

2. Often, on the turn, our opponent will bet with a fairly wide, weak range. The turn card is 2♦, and now the board is 8♣7♣4♥2♦.

Let's consider our opponent's actions with their range when we check on the turn. With straight draw possibilities, flush draw possibilities, and having nothing (air), our opponent will often bet (float) – it's simple because such a bet is the most common way to win the pot in this situation. The opponent will usually check with hands like weak pairs or pair + draw, and hands of even lower value. With weak pairs, the opponent would want to reach the showdown as cheaply as possible or without any cost at all.

So, when the opponent bets on the turn, it often means their range is very weak, and now the pot is very large. Therefore, the turn is an excellent time to perform a check-raise as a semi-bluff and, of course, for reason number 3, capitalizing on dead money. But sometimes our opponent can be clever and just call on the flop with a hand like 65. Other times, the turn card can secretly help our opponent. There will be cases where our opponent holds a hand like TT, 99, A8, or 86 and decides to bet on the turn to extract more money from us if we decide to check-raise. To compensate for such possibilities, we need to ensure we have some equity before deciding to check-raise. Thus, A♣5♣ with a board like 8♣7♣4♥2♦ is a great hand because we have a lot of winning equity. A♣J♣ would also be a great option. K♦Q♥ probably wouldn't be as good an option.

In the stage of the game when the flop and turn are revealed, it is very important to understand when to make a continuation bet (c-bet) and when to check-raise. If our opponent chooses to flat call on a wet board, it usually means their range does not include hands like sets, two pairs, or straights. However, if our opponent chooses to call on a dry board (say, something like 8♣7♦4♥), then check-raising on the turn becomes a much worse option. With fewer draw possibilities, a large part of the opponent's betting range on the turn includes hands like slow-played sets, two pairs, or even straights. If I had A♣5♣ on a board like 8♣6♦2♥4♣, I would always make a continuation bet on the turn, planning to fold if the opponent raises, instead of planning to check-raise.

Calculating winning equity is very easy: we need to look at how many outs we have and, using a bit of memory, we remember that a nut flush draw usually has between 40 and 50 percent equity. A gutshot has about 18 percent on the flop. Very simple. On the other hand, calculating fold equity can be much more complicated. What factors influence our fold equity?

1. Player type. This factor is the most significant when calculating fold equity. Against a bad player (whether passive-bad or aggressive-bad), our fold equity is greatly reduced, simply because such players are very reluctant to fold any strength of hand. The answer is simple: we have a wider value bet range but cannot continue aggression with weak hands that rely on fold equity.

2. Board texture.

Tai yra tai apie ką mes katik diskutavome, yra gyvybiškai svarbu suprasti nusimetimo šansus (fold equity). Jei ant tokio flopo, kaip 983r, atsivertus ketvirtajai kortai (turn), mes pamatysime tūzą, mūsų nusimetimo šansai padidės. Jei atsivertus ketvirtajai kortai pasirodys T ir žemesnės vertės kortos, mūsų nusimetimo šansai (fold equity) sumažės. Ši dalis yra lengvai suprantama, overcardai padidina mūsų nusimetimo šansus, na o žemos vertės kortos (low cards) ir koordinuotos kortos sumažina.

3. Oponentų skaičius. Šita dalis yra viena iš aiškiausių. Jei žaidime dalyvauja daugiau galimų pradinių kombinacijų, tai reiškia yra daugiau galimybių jog boardas tiks vienam iš žaidimą pradėjusių oponentų, tokiu atveju mūsų nusimetimo šansai (fold equity) leidžiasi žemyn.

4. Įsivaizduojamas ir suvokiamas rankų range. Mes tai apžvelgsime plačiau išplėstiniame skyriuje, bet jei mes turime plačia (loose) ir paremta blefais (bluffy) istoriją, tai mūsų nusimetimo šansai (fold equity) mažėja. Jei mes turime siaurą (tight), solidžią istoriją tai nusimetimo šansai (fold equity) didėja. Tai vyksta todėl, kad keičiasi kaip mūsų oponentai suvokią mūsų range.

Kartais šios priežastys žaidžia viena prieš kitą. Boardas, gali būti labai gąsdinantis jei atsivertus ketvirtoji korta yra tūzas, bet oponento stilius prieš kurį žaidžiame yra loose-passive ir dėl šios priežasties mes neturėtume tęsti agresijos. Kitas kartais mes žaisime multyway pote, bet boardas bus sausas ir abu oponentai žaidžiantys prieš mus bus tight-passive, tokiu atveju yra puikus laikas agresijos tesimui. Tai yra pokerio žaidėjo darbas – mokėti balansuoti šiais faktoriais.

Straipsnių seriją parengta pagal Andrew Seidman pokerio knygą: “Easy game”. Norintys įsigyti originalą, kuris yra anglų kalba, gali tai padaryti balugawhale.com.

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