Andrew Seidman Easy Game - Aggression and the fourth card "Turn"

Chapter 3: Aggression and the fourth card "Turn"

Let's go back to the previous article, where we have A♠6♠ in our hand and 9♠7♦3♣Q♠ on the table. This is the ideal time to continue aggressive play. Why?

The fourth card, when turned over, is ideal for us in many ways. Firstly, it gives us extra chances - we now have twelve outs, where with A6o we would have only three outs left. Secondly, Q♠ is an uncoordinated overcard to the flop, giving us an additional fold equity, in which situation the opponent will be much more cautious about continuing to bet with, for example, 88 in his hand. This combination of our good odds of winning the pot and our fold equity simply forces us to continue to be aggressive with the fourth card open. Here's a little equation to make it quicker and easier to understand how to calculate the relationship between pot size and fold odds.

WINNING EQUITY + FOLD EQUITY = AGGRESSION

Sometimes we will have so much winning equity that we won't need a large fold equity. Let's say we have Q♥J♥ and the flop is T♥9♥2♣4♦. We have the option of completing a flush, and a two-way buy into the turn, so our hand is so strong that we only need the opponent to fold a small fraction of his total playing range when we re-raise to make this action profitable. From the other side of the coin, let's try to look at another situation where we have 22 in our hand and the flop is 743Ar. The ace that comes out after the turn gives us so many fold equities that our low chance of winning with this card is offset by the fact that our opponent folds an inhumanly high percentage of his hand. This is why most of the seats are not so easy to play. What if we have A♠5♠ and the flop is 9♠7♦3♣T♠? Our pot equities are good, but the face-up fourth card reduces our odds of folding, because the face-up card fills most of the opponent's possible hands that might be in his hand range. Even a hand like 88 with the fourth card face-up has a very low percentage of being folded, because it opens up the possibility for the opponent to fill the queue with that hand. The ability to weigh the ratio of our hand's winning equity to the fold equity is an integral part of a poker player's job.

As soon as we realise that we have a good enough hand that has a good ratio of winning equity to fold equity, we can continue to play aggressively. Most of the time, this means that we just keep on betting, which is the plan we usually use if we have a strong hand instead of a draw. However, in some situations it is better to check-raise on the fourth card. Which determining factors decide that check-raise is better than 2nd barrel?

1. It is not often that our opponent will have a strong hand. Let's say we have A♣5♣. If we make a bet on the flop like 8♣7♣4♥ and our opponent calls our bet, then, in this case, we can usually be sure that our opponent won't have a strong hand such as 88, 77, 44, 65, or 87, because, with such a hand, the opponent will usually make a hitting action. The cards that we would most likely assign to the opponent's Range, which he uses to respond to our betting action, are probably combinations such as T9, J9, and A5, which are for straight draw; combinations such as 86, 76, and 55 are for pairing and gutshot for straight draw. Combinations such as A8 or 97 are for making weak pairs; combinations such as Q♣J♣ or K♣T♣ are for making a suit. Finally, combinations such as AJ or KQ are used to allow a player to take the pot from an opponent when the fourth card (turn) is turned up. By breaking these combinations down accordingly, our opponent may have combinations such as straight option, pair + straight option, weak pair, flush option, and (air,or nothing at all).With each of these combinations, it is possible to flop. Only the last category is classified as a hand that plays less well on the flop, because it does not offer any pair or strong draw option.

2. Often, when the fourth card is turned up, our opponent will bet with a fairly wide, weak hand range. The fourth card is turned up and it is 2♦ now the community cards are 8♣7♣4♥2♦.

Let's consider our opponent's actions, with his rank, when we make a check with the fourth card face up. With the possibility of completing a straight draw, the possibility of completing a flush draw, and with nothing at all, or in other words, a complete "air", our opponent will most often make a float bet - which is simple, because such a bet is the most common way of winning the pot in this situation. Most often, the opponent will choose to check hands with combinations such as weak pair or pair+draw, and combinations that are even lower in value. With weak pairs, the opponent will want to reach the showdown as cheaply as possible, or without any umokex at all

So, when an opponent bets when the fourth card is turned up, it usually means that the opponent's range is very weak and the pot is now very large. Therefore, when the fourth card is turned up is the perfect time to make a check-raise action as a semi-bluff and of course for reason number 3, capitalization of dead money. But sometimes our opponent can be clever and with a hand like 65 just call the action on the flop.Other times the fourth card turned up can secretly help our opponent.There will be times when our opponent will have a hand like TT, 99, A8, or 86 in his hand and will decide to bet on the fourth card turned up to get more money out of us if we decide to check-raise the hand. To compensate for this possibility of action by our opponent, we need to make sure that we have some equity before we decide to check-raise. Thus A♣5♣ with community cards like 8♣7♣4♥2♦ is a great hand because we have a lot of winning equity. A♣J♣ would also be a great option .K♦Q♥ would probably not be such a good option.

At the stage of the game when the flop and the fourth card are face up, it is very important to understand when we need to c-bet and when we need to check-raise. If our opponent chooses a flat call on a wet board, then usually in this situation our opponent's range does not include combinations such as sets, two pairs or straights. However, if our opponent chooses to call on a dry board (say 8♣7♦4♥), then the choice of a check-raise action on the fourth card becomes a much worse option. With fewer draw options, a large part of the opponent's betting range on the fourth card includes combinations such as slow-played sets, two pairs or even straights. If I had A♣5♣ on a board such as 8♣6♦2♥4♣, I would always make a retest bet on the turn with a plan to fold if my opponent raises, instead of a plan to check-raise.

Calculating the odds of winning is very easy: we have to look at how many outs we have and use a little bit of our memory, we remember that a nut flush draw usually has between 40 and 50 percent equity. A gutshot has about 18 percent of the flop. Very simple. On the other hand, calculating fold equity can be much more complicated. What factors influence our fold equity?

1. Player type. This factor is the most significant in calculating fold equity. Against a bad player (whether passive-bad or aggressive-bad), our fold equity is greatly reduced, simply because such players are very reluctant to fold hands of any strength. The answer is easy, we have a wider value but range, but we can't test aggression with weak hands that rely on fold equity.

2. Board texture. This is what we have just been discussing, it is vital to understand the odds of fold equity. If on a flop like 983r we see an ace on the turn, our odds of folding increase. If the fourth card is a T or lower on the turn, our fold equity will decrease. This part is easy to understand, overcards increase our odds of folding, while low cards and coordinated cards decrease them.

3. Number of opponents. If there are more possible starting hands in the game, this means there is a greater chance that the board will match one of the opponents who started the game, in which case our fold equity goes down.

4. Imagined and perceived hand range. We will go into this more in the advanced section, but if we have a loose and bluffy history, our fold equity decreases. If we have a tight, solid history, the odds of folding increase. This happens because the way our opponents perceive our range changes.

Sometimes these reasons play against each other. On the board, it can be very frightening if the fourth card turned up is an ace, but the opponent's style of play is loose-passive and for this reason we shouldn't continue the aggression. Other times we will play a multyway pot but the board is dry and both opponents playing against us are tight-passive, in which case it is a great time to continue the aggression. It is the poker player's job to be able to balance these factors.

This series of articles is based on Andrew Seidman's poker book "Easy game". If you would like to purchase the original, which is available in English, you can do so balugawhale.com.

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