Andrew Seidman " Easy Game" - Preflop hand variation and postflop probabilities

Chapter 2: Preflop hand variation and postflop probabilities

Pre-flop is definitely the easiest street to play. The game variations are greatly reduced, with only two cards per person in play. Not like after the flop, where situations become extremely complex. Pre-flop is much easier to deal with. But every student I have coached has started with one big pre-flop mistake. They don't think about playing after the flop. For the average poker player, the pre-flop game is a vacuum in which we can raise K2o in dealer position because our hand is stronger against opponents in Range forced-betting positions.

What do you think: In a pre-flop vacuum, it would be profitable to raise 100% in dealer position. The dead money from the forced bets would easily make up for raising with 72o. So why don't we raise 100% in dealer position? Oh, because 72o is just terrible post-flop. K2o's odds aren't much better after the flop either.

One of the most frequent requests for help that I hear is for help with statistics on money won without showdown. The difficulty that most players have in cashing in a pre-showdown game stems from their inability to play a well-planned pre-flop game that is close to the strategy used for the post-flop game. There is a gap between their pre-flop plan and their post-flop plan. In summary, they do not think about options. Let's try to figure it all out.

We have K8o in the position of a dealer. Our first thought is to raise, because our hand is ahead of the opponent's entire blind range and we can collect the dead money (ante) and blinds. So, let's say we raise and the opponent calls from the big blind. Flop, 9♠7♦3♣. The opponent misses (check), we make a standard re-raise (c-bet), but the opponent also calls. The fourth card is then turned up, which is 2♠. The opponent again misses the turn. Oh boy, we have a big problem here! If we also miss a turn, we will inevitably end up on the last street, where we have to turn up and show a weak hand and lose some of the chips we have already bet. From our point of view, it looks pretty weak. Alternatively, we could bet, but the fourth card turned up is a no-change card, so it's likely that the opponent will not fold anything that he bet with before the fourth card turned up. Overly aggressive and frequent betting often becomes a waste of chips. The real problem comes before the flop. We pick hands that have low odds (equities) in the post-flop game and then we end up in unprofitable spots - situations where we simply can't do anything right. There is a very easy solution to avoid this - we just need to pick hands that have good odds in the post-flop game before we start playing.

And what are these cards ?

1) Suited cards are a great example of a start. Single suited cards have good odds in the game when the flop is opened. When I try to explain this to people, most of their first reaction is negative, because one of a kind cards rarely complete a flush. This is true, but let's think about it in terms of the possibilities of the hand (equities).

• On the left we have A♠6♠. On the right we have A♠6♣. We raise in dealer position before the flop and our opponent calls again from the big blind. The flop opens 9♠7♠3♠. With A♠6♠ we have 100% odds compared to 50% odds with A♠6♣. About the difference in 50% odds. That is a lot.
• Now, take a moment to consider how often will we flush as soon as the flop is opened? I agree, let's change the open flop to 9♠7♠3♣. We have 50% on the left compared to 15% on the right. The difference of 35% is also quite large.
• The most important thing to consider is the flop 9♠7♦3♣. We bet (bet) and receive a call. The fourth card (the turn) is revealed and it is Q♠. A6s has 12 outs in this spot, which is 12 suited cards. A6o has 3 outs, which means that there are three suited cards left for this hand. Now, with more equities, we can be aggressive. Unlike with A6o, where we can only choose between being weak and being someone who wastes his chips. We can be correspondingly aggressive with A6s. We will discuss this a little later in the next section.

2) High cards also have good odds. Let's talk about AQo. If we see A or Q on the flop, we usually have the best hand. However, when the flop opens, we will usually see three unsuited lower cards, in which case we will be left with six outs to the higher cards. And in most situations, six outs will be enough for us to continue our aggression.

3) Cards that are close to each other (connecting cards) also have good odds (equities), although not as high as suited or high cards. They have some advantages, such as the possibility of making a straight, which I think is one of the most hidden hands in poker, but it also has a number of disadvantages. If there is a flush draw on the table, the odds of making a winning straight hand will be severely compromised because an incomplete straight draw has 8 outs for a possible completion, whereas an incomplete flush draw has 9 outs for a possible completion, and better still is a top flush draw, which gives us 12 outs for a possible completion. If we get a straight draw when the fourth card (turn) is turned up, this fourth card (turn card) will usually make the table more coordinated and thus less likely to be aggressive. As an example, consider the following situation: we are holding JT and the flop is K75Q. The opportunity to complete the turn is tempting, but in this situation we are unlikely to be able to continue our aggression with such a strong fourth card because of our opponent's potential hand Range, which includes cards such as KQ. A better situation might be if, for example, the flop was even lower and more intimidating. Let's say we are holding JT and the flop is 964r and then the fourth card turned up is an 8. With a fourth card like that, our position becomes very difficult and complicated to continue the aggression even though our cards have good odds (equities).

To understand everything I've tried to explain, try to understand that card combinations such as A3s are very strong if you combine their value as suited cards, high cards and connecting cards. A2s-A5s are stronger hands than A6s-A9s, the value that is derived from the extra chances of making a consecutive hand offsets the value that is derived from the value of the kicker. Example: a 6 is not much better than a 5 as a kicker, but a straight or a chance to make a straight is much better than a weak kicker. Cards like 76s are also quite strong, although they do not have a good kicker. And of course there are cards like KJo, which are less valuable than one type but still quite strong.

There are certainly infinite advantages to aggression: we win bigger pots with strong hands, we force our opponents to fold their best hands, we often collect dead money (antes) and blinds, and all of these aggressive actions make it infinitely more difficult for our opponents trying to predict the hand we have. Now that we know which hands put us in places where we are free to continue to be aggressive, we can start to consider where we have a good chance and where we want to continue to play aggressively.

This series of articles is based on Andrew Seidman's poker book "Easy game". If you would like to purchase the original, which is available in English, you can do so balugawhale.com.

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