Knyga "Easy Game" - preflop variation, postflop probabilities

Chapter Two: Preflop Hand Variation and Postflop Probabilities

Before the flop is revealed, it is undoubtedly the easiest street to play. The variations in the game are significantly reduced – only two cards are dealt to each player. Unlike post-flop, where situations become extremely complex. Dealing with preflop play is much easier. However, every student I have trained started with one big preflop mistake. They don't think about the game post-flop. For the average poker player, preflop play is a vacuum where we can raise K2o in the dealer position because our cards are stronger against the opponent's range in the forced bet positions.

What do you think: If it were profitable to raise 100% of hands in the dealer position in a vacuum before the flop. Dead money from forced bets would easily compensate for raising with 72o. So why don't we raise 100% of hands in the dealer position? Because 72o plays terribly post-flop. K2o's chances post-flop aren't much better either.

One of the most common requests for help I hear is for assistance with the money won without showing cards (without showdown) statistics. The difficulties most players face in making money in the game before showing cards (before showdown) arise from their inability to play a well-planned preflop game that is close to the strategy used for post-flop play. There is a gap between their preflop game plan and the plan intended for post-flop play. In summary – they don't think about the possibilities. Let's try to figure all this out.

We have K8o in the dealer position. Our first thought is to raise because our hand is ahead of all the opponent's range in the big blind position, and we can collect the dead money (ante) and forced bets. So, let's say we raise, and the opponent in the big blind position calls. The flop comes 9♠7♦3♣. The opponent checks, we make a standard continuation bet (c-bet), but the opponent calls. Then the turn card is revealed, which is 2♠. The opponent checks again. Oh boy, we have a big problem here! If we also check, we will inevitably reach the river, where we will have to show our weak hand and lose part of our already invested chips. From our perspective, it looks quite weak. Or we could bet, but the turn card is a blank, so it's likely the opponent won't fold anything they called with before the turn. Being too aggressive and frequent with betting often becomes a waste of chips. The real problem arises preflop. We choose hand combinations that have low equity post-flop, and then we end up in unprofitable spots – situations where we simply can't make any correct move. There is a very easy solution to avoid all this – we just need to choose hand combinations that have good equity post-flop before starting to play.

And what are those cards?

1) Suited cards are a great example to start with. Suited cards have good equity in the game when the flop is revealed. When I try to explain this to people, most of their first reactions are negative because suited cards rarely complete a flush. This is true, but let's think about it in terms of equity.

On the left, we have A♠6♠. On the right, we have A♠6♣. We raise in the dealer position preflop, and the opponent in the big blind position calls our raise. The flop comes 9♠7♠3♠. With A♠6♠, we have 100% equity compared to 50% equity with A♠6♣. About a 50% equity difference. That's a lot.
Now, let's get serious and consider how often we will complete a flush right when the flop is revealed? I agree, let's change the flop to 9♠7♠3♣. On the left, we have 50% equity compared to 15% on the right. A 35% difference is also quite significant.
The most important thing is to consider the flop cards 9♠7♦3♣. We bet and get a call. The turn card is revealed, and it's Q♠. A6s in this spot has 12 outs, which means 12 suitable cards. A6o has 3 outs, which means only three suitable cards are left for this combination. Now, with a higher equity count, we can be aggressive. Unlike with A6o, where we can only choose between being weak and wasting our chips. We can be appropriately aggressive with A6s. We will discuss this a bit later – in the next chapter.

2) High cards also have good equity. Let's discuss the AQo combination. If, when the flop is revealed, we see an A or Q, then we usually have the best hand. However, when the flop is revealed, we often see three lower cards that don't suit us, in which case we have six outs to higher cards. And in most situations, six outs are enough for us to continue being aggressive.

3) Connecting cards also have good equity, though not as high as suited or high cards. They have some advantage, such as the possibility of forming a straight, which I believe is one of the most hidden hand combinations in poker, but this combination also has many drawbacks. If there is a possibility of forming a flush on the board, the chances of forming a winning straight will be greatly reduced because an open-ended straight draw has 8 outs for a possible completion, while a flush draw has 9 outs for a possible completion, and even better is the nut flush draw, which gives us 12 outs for a possible completion. If the turn card gives us a straight draw, it usually makes the board more coordinated and thus reduces the possibility of being aggressive. As an example, we can use this situation: we hold JT, and the flop is K75Q. The possibility of completing a straight is tempting, but in this situation, we are unlikely to continue being aggressive with such a strong turn card due to our opponent's possible hand range, which includes hands like KQ. A better situation could be if, for example, the flop were lower and more intimidating. Let's say we hold JT, and the flop is 964r, and then the turn card is 8. With such a turn card, our position becomes very difficult and complicated for continuing aggression, even though our cards have good equity.

To understand everything I tried to explain, try to understand that hand combinations like A3s are very strong if we combine their value as suited cards, high cards, and connecting cards. A2s-A5s are stronger hand combinations than A6s-A9s, the value derived from the additional straight draw equity compensates for the value derived from the kicker's value. For example: 6 is not much better than 5 as a kicker, but a straight or the possibility of forming a straight is much better than a weak kicker. Hands like 76s are also quite strong, even though they don't have a good kicker. And, of course, there are hands like KJo, which are less valuable than suited cards but still quite strong.

Undoubtedly, aggression has countless advantages: we win bigger pots with strong hand combinations, we force our opponents to fold their best hands, we often collect dead money (ante) and forced bets, and all these actions arising from aggression cause countless difficulties for our opponents trying to guess our hand combination. Now that we know which hand combinations put us in positions where we can freely continue being aggressive, we can start considering where we have high equity and where we want to continue using aggressive play.

The article series is prepared based on Andrew Seidman's poker book: “Easy game”.

Those who want to purchase the original, which is in English, can do so at balugawhale.com.