Poker psychology. The importance of making correct decisions

Correct Decisions Above Making Money

Playing poker correctly in the long run gives a significant advantage because you can focus all your attention on the single most important thing: making the right decisions. Every poker hand has its decisions, i.e., in every hand, we can play well or poorly. In pot-limit or no-limit games, you have to decide how much to raise or re-raise, while in other variations like lowball or 5-card draw, you have to decide how many and which cards to discard. “Correct” play always guarantees discussions. However, in the excellent book The Theory of Poker, author David Sklansky explains it as the “Fundamental Theorem of Poker”:

Every time you play your hand differently than you would if you could see all your opponents' cards, they win. If every time you play your hand the same way you would if you could see all your opponents' cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently if they could see your cards, you win. And every time they play their hands the same way they would if they could see your cards, you lose.

This theorem provides a wonderful and concise explanation of how money is won and lost in poker, but it should not be used to determine whether a specific decision was a mistake or not. The problem is that Sklansky's theorem assumes you have perfect information. In reality, we almost never have perfect information because our opponents' cards are hidden. In fact, if we had perfect information, poker would not be an interesting game at all.

When we talk about “correct play,” we mean the best play we can reasonably expect to make based on the information we have. Our definition focuses more on the practical side of the game than the theoretical. To illustrate the difference between the two sides, imagine this hand:

You are playing No-limit Hold'em and holding AQ. A big pot develops, and on the river, you are heads-up with an opponent with the board showing

A J9 87

Your opponent raises. What do you do? You hold the nut flush when your opponent could have many hands worse than yours, such as a set, a straight, a lower flush, or perhaps even two pairs. The obvious play is to re-raise, and against most opponents, this is undoubtedly a good play based on the information you have.

But what if your opponent holds T9? You lose to a straight flush, so the correct theoretical play according to Sklansky's definition would be to fold. You probably have no way of knowing that he has a straight flush, so re-raising is considered correct for all practical purposes, and folding would be terrible. You should almost certainly at least call, even against an opponent you have never seen bet on the river without the absolute best hand.

Why should we emphasize correct decisions over making money? After all, isn't the most important thing in poker to make money? The problem again arises from the dominance of luck in the short term. There is no way to guarantee making money in the short term. There are simply too many unknowns and random variations. A good player can virtually ensure making money in the long run, but he can only do this by making correct decisions. A correct decision can result in the player losing money, but consistently making correct decisions is the only way to ensure long-term profitability. Focusing elsewhere is pointless.

For example, let's say you are playing no-limit Hold'em and get AT of different suits in late position. A solid player in early position makes a standard raise. You understand that AT is a marginal hand with which playing against an early position raise is difficult, so you make the correct decision – you fold. The big blind calls, and the board comes A-T-9. After two more meaningless cards, the big blind wins a big pot with T-9 of the same suit against the early position player who had A-K. If you hadn't folded pre-flop, you would have won a very big pot.

This kind of hand greatly upsets beginner players, who look at such a hand in isolation rather than as a small incident in their larger poker career. Although their fold in this hand actually cost them money, it was a good decision and will save them money in the long run. Any simulation programs will show that against A-K and T-9 of the same suit, A-T will be the best hand on the river only 15 percent of the time. So your fold effectively earned you money because you realistically don't expect to make money from 15 percent when you will lose 85 percent.

This principle is the same for any decision in poker. If you make good decisions, then the actual result of the hand becomes irrelevant. Inevitably, there will be times when you lose money making good decisions, and inevitably other players will win money making bad decisions. What you can do is comfort yourself with the knowledge that over time all those players will lose all their money, and if you continue to play well, you will be in the best position to win that money. Don't worry about the money; worry about making the right decisions and let the money take care of itself.