First of all โ you can't calculate everything
No matter how powerful a computer or formulas you have, it is simply impossible to create an effective game optimization theory that would always allow you to make the most logical and best decision. There are so many variations that counting them all is simply physically impossible.
If you don't use programs and play multi-table poker, then you have to perform dozens, if not hundreds, of calculations and make dozens of decisions in your head per minute.
Therefore, you must understand that you simply won't be able to mathematically justify all decisions, and sometimes you will just need to rely on intuition, hoping that the decision made will be the most correct.
If you still try to calculate, you won't have enough time, as the time for a move in poker is limited. That's why all top-level players try to gather as much information as possible to rely less on BLIND intuition and make decisions based on probabilities and information gathered about other players.
Where is the best place to play poker?
Secondly โ intuition often hides mathematics
There is an unofficial opinion that jazz musicians are the best improvisers in the world. Since their music almost never has any written notes or set rhythms (it constantly changes), most jazz musicians improvise and play what comes to mind.
In other words, they rely on intuition. However, among jazz musicians, there is a popular saying โ “There is no better improvisation than a rehearsed improvisation.” So even the greatest improvisers rehearse, learn, improve, prepare, and read the situation, looking for solutions, not just acting as they see fit at the moment.
In this aspect, similarities can be found between two very different things, poker and jazz. Players find it convenient and easy to rely on intuition.
Moreover, successful intuitive decisions can create the most beautiful and Hollywood-like game moments.
However, in the long run, playing many rounds, it is necessary to rely on mathematics, otherwise, you will often fall into bluff traps and overestimate your ability to read situations.
Mathematics is especially important in preflop situations, where the foundation for further play is laid. Later, you have to guess and calculate the possibilities of only a few (but at least not all) opponents.
How to gain maximum benefit during real games?
If the greatest mathematician and the greatest oracle were to play at a poker table, it is very likely that the oracle could win one or two matches. However, the more and longer they play, the more competitions the mathematician would win.
No matter how much you want to win, relying on instincts does not overcome probability theories and mathematically based calculations. Minimizing losses, you can stay at the poker table longer than going All-in every other move.
According to poker players, intuition at the table is beneficial only when the player has knowledge and experience. In general, it is not worth relying on intuition and feelings if the player is a beginner or not very experienced. After all, intuition is born when we draw conclusions about the environment around us.
Therefore, intuition is more accurate when those conclusions are more accurate, and the accuracy of conclusions directly depends on our insight. Thus, looking at professional players, one might get the false impression that they are just guessing what is happening. After all, there is so much talk at the table that it is difficult to understand that behind all this lies a lot of calculations and considerations.
All experienced poker players will unanimously agree that it is necessary to know at least the basics of poker probability mathematics to increase your success at a real game table.
Otherwise, the probability of silly and avoidable mistakes simply increases unnecessarily. There are several areas and formulas that can be applied in real game conditions to increase the probability of success.
Optimal play (for beginners)
Inexperienced players should rely on intuition no more than 5% of their hands. Why?
Because doing so more often will simply increase the likelihood of losing, as their game instincts are simply not sharp enough to know at which stage, which player will dare to bluff, and who will constantly make bully maneuvers and try to easily collect small winnings.
The best thing you can do when playing remotely is to play for very small amounts and improve your skills using poker programs. This way, you will gradually gain intuition for game situations and understand your mistakes and see which ones you make most often.
Relying more on calculations and not rushing will reduce the number of mistakes, so you won't lose much, and that should be the main goal of every beginner player.
Optimal play (for experienced players)
Experienced players can already think about earnings or results. Everyone wants to win, but each also uses a unique, distinctive strategy to achieve it. We have quiet and calculating players, and we have those who act somewhat irrationally, taking a lot of risks.
However, both types of players can be winners; it all depends on how they utilize their strengths and mask their weaknesses. You don't need to think too much about masking if you're using a poker program.
Then it calculates all the risks itself, identifies mistakes, and helps you take advantage of opponents' mistakes, ensuring maximum benefit during the game.
Experienced players rely on intuition more than mathematics up to 25% of the time, but it is not recommended to risk based solely on intuition more than 10-15% of the hands. Sometimes mathematical formulas urge you to fold. However, even experienced players should not wait for intuition to reach them.
Only when the cards are drawn and seen does intuition speak, and according to statistics, it is right ~75-95% of the time. However, precisely because of those additional 5% missing to reach a full hundred, in the long run, dry mathematics still wins, as probability theory is the strongest weapon and the most powerful knowledge a poker player can have in their arsenal. Fortunately, now you don't have to learn them from A to Z if you have a poker program that calculates everything for you.
Examples from Real Game Situations
No matter what situations occur during the game, mathematical probabilities are most applicable when a player tries to form a certain combination but does not yet have it, or when they suspect their opponents are doing the same.
Thus, we most often calculate probabilities when a player aims for flush or straight combinations.
Remember, it's enough to know just the basics. Pot odds, EV (expected value) and equity are the three formulas that make up about 90% of all poker mathematics.
EV (expected value)
You can find a lot of information about each of these formulas online. To make the content as useful as possible, let's review one of the most important mathematical functions โ bluff probability.
Suppose you are left with one other opponent who bluffs 1 out of 5 times when they have the best combination after the river. Four times they do not bluff.
This means we have a 20% probability (1 out of 5) that we have better cards in our hands. That's the probability that they are bluffing. Therefore, parallel to the aforementioned calculation – there is about an 80% probability (4 out of 5) that we do not have the best card combination.
Therefore, we will win once for every four losses. Suppose that if we have the best combination, we will win โฌ25, but if we call and lose, we will incur a โฌ6 loss. This means that after 5 times, we will win โฌ25 but lose โฌ24.
Therefore, according to the general theory, by calling each bet, we will have a โฌ1 profit after five hands. So, although the benefit is small, it means that it is worthwhile for us to call the bet.
Perhaps it's difficult to understand the textual description. Then watch this YouTube video, which clearly shows the most important information about pot odds.
Pot odds
Conclusions
After examining real situations and knowing the statistics, we can say that relying solely on intuition is advised no more than 10% of the time. All other times, intuition emerges from rational conclusions that we can generate using simple mathematical formulas, such as pot odds.
Therefore, it is better to rely on boring statistics in poker and only improvise when you have enough experience, when intuition whispers that it will be the best decision.
