Statistics in Poker - Beginners (I)

Introduction

In this article you will learn:

How statistics come in handy at the poker tables
What problems you should know about
Different levels of statisticians and their structure

What are statistics (stats)?

Statistics - in short and simple terms, these are the various statistical information that you collect and store in your poker database using various poker software (e.g. PokerTracker 4 via HoldemManager 2).

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Although the amount of information you get from statistics is limited, you can still rely on them very often in a variety of situations. With this article, we start a series of articles on statistics, their aspects and how they should be used correctly. You will learn which statistics depend on each other and how the correct interpretation of statistics helps you make important decisions at the table.

So, we'll start by learning about the basics of statistics and how different statistics depend on each other. Later we will focus on the interpretation of statistics, the correlation of invidual statistics, and how the number of hands played against opponents affects the outcome. Moreover, you will see how you can predict what your opponent thinks based on statistics.

Why do we use statistics?

Players use statistics to predict the range of their opponent's hands and how much chance you have of winning with your hand against their hand. Statistics also help to identify the type of player and to see what their playing patterns are.

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What can't statistics do?

Statistics are just plain numbers - remember that. This means that these numbers indicate how your opponent usually behaves in a given situation, e.g. how often he raises or calls before the flop.

Statistics help you spot trends in players. But there are other factors that determine what your opponent's decision will be. If you rely solely on statistics and do not pay attention to other details, this can lead you to make the wrong decision.

So, when playing, you won't always have to base your decision on statistics. Statistics are only part of the information about your opponent, so you have to put this part in context. So, under no circumstances base your decision solely on these figures.

What the statistics say and don't say

When you look at a statistic, you combine two things: you take the numerical value of the statistic and use it to try to predict your opponent's hand range. Generally speaking, statistics can't tell you anything about your opponent's hand range, as strange as that may sound. If, for example, your opponent's 3-bet statistic is 5%, it simply tells you that this player has 3-bet 5% in the hands he has played. Nothing else.

So, as you can see, these statistics don't tell us anything about your opponent's hand range, but only how often your opponent performs a certain action. This is a very important point that you need to understand.

Thus, statistics specifically refer to the frequency of a particular action or reaction. Statistics do not directly indicate the strength of an opponent's range of cards.

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Pitfalls you may encounter when using statistics

Statisticians' numerical value does not take into account the overall context

Every poker situation (and this applies to both you and your opponents) depends on many factors. For example, playing style, emotional state, reads, history, other players in the hand, table dynamics, position, image, limits, etc. As all these factors vary from hand to hand, they inevitably influence the opponent's decisions in one way or another.

As you have already realised, the decision you make in any given situation is not based solely on the two cards you are dealt. It applies to both you and your opponent.

Such statistics just show simple numbers without taking into account the overall context, i.e. e.g. these statistics do not take into account your meta game. So this is another aspect you should pay attention to.

The "continuation but flop" statistics are a perfect example of this. This statistic tells you how often your opponent will make a continuation bet while being the pre-flop aggressor. Of course, the opponent will take into account the cards on the table, his position, the number of players in the pot, etc. before contibetting. So he will take into account how many opponents are in the pot, what their stats are, whether he has any reads against his opponents, etc., before he makes his decision.

Just looking at this statistic, without any context, we cannot tell whether the opponent often finds the situation favourable to cbet the flop. This statistic does not tell you anything about the situation in which the opponent has made contibets, so, again, the numbers alone should not be relied upon.

So, based on this statistic, we cannot say that an opponent contibet'ins in all cases, against any number of opponents, with the frequency indicated by this statistic. If you want to use statistics correctly, you need to pay attention to other factors.

The best way to adapt is to look at the statistics and the overall context. This is called "interpreting" statistics. Interpreting statistics is another important point, which we will discuss in the second part of this article.

EXAMPLE:

The opponent makes a test bet on the flop at 70%. If the opponent is in position and the flop is AQ7 rainbow, he will usually c-bet more than 70% against his opponent. If the opponent is not in position and the flop is and there are multiple players in the pot, he will c-bet far less than 70% in his hands.

Based on statistics and the overall situation, much better decisions can be taken. The most important thing to understand is that with every statistic you have to adapt to the situation - in other words, you have to interpret the statistic.

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"Top range syndrome"

Recall the example where the opponent 3-bets with a frequency of 5%. You are probably imagining that he 3-bets 5% of the best hands in his hand range. However, this is not correct. This is because poker is a game where you cannot know everything about your opponents because you cannot see their cards.

As you already know, the 3-bet statistic shows the frequency of this action, but it does not tell you the strength of your opponent's 3-betting range. This means that you just know that the opponent 3-bets 5% on his preflop, but this does not automatically mean that it is 5% of the best hands he can have. Maybe your opponent likes to slow play KK+? Or maybe he never 3-bets AK because "he may not see A or K on the table". Does he know what light 3-betting is? Is he trying to isolate himself from certain players who play with bad hands? Or maybe he likes to win a hand preflop against certain opponents by making a good fold equity?

A player may also have other reasons for 3-betting that have nothing to do with the cards he is holding. So should you - and you can assume that other players do too. As you can see, you can sometimes get the wrong idea about statistics, and think that they tell you different things about your opponent than they should.

When looking at statistics, it is also very important to consider the size of the range of cards, i.e. the number of possible hands, and the strength of the range of cards, i.e. the number of possible hands that are strong, depending on the cards on the table. A small range of cards does not necessarily mean that the opponent will have only strong hands. The same is true for a large range of cards - it does not mean that the opponent will have only weak hands.

"No sample size syndrome"

By far the biggest mistake players make when looking at statistics is that they don't take into account how many hands have been played against an opponent. The fewer hands played against an opponent, the worse. Especially when the player also has "top range syndrome", because then most players tend to draw completely illogical conclusions about their opponent's hand range.

This is a paradoxical mistake. Poker players usually rely on statistics when they have played a thousand or more hands against an opponent. But other players think that if they have played just a few hands against another player, they can rely on statistics. This is a big hole in their game.