Statistics in Poker - Level 2 Interpretation

So, we've previously discussed the importance of context interpretations by first-level statisticians. You may also have already reflected on the importance of paying attention to various details, such as the cards on the table, in order to get a good impression of the opponent. In the second level, you interpret these results in the context of a real game situation. The cards on the table, the dynamics of the table, the reads, the hand history and other factors are all very important at this level.
problems-with-pokertracker-statistics-and-handling-of-drugs

The result is yet another link in the chain (we've talked about this before). In the second example (from of this article) was a node in the flop chain.

Level 2 interpretations, i.e. the interpretation of a real game situation, are very complex. You will have to apply all the basic principles that we have talked about in other articles and that we will not discuss in this article.

The second an example of a previous article has shown you perfectly how many things you need to consider when interpreting even one statistic. As you have already seen, statistics from other betting rounds can help you interpret the current betting round.

Number of hands played in the interpretation chain

You are probably no stranger to statistics on the number of hands played. It tells you how many of your opponent's hands you have in your poker database. It also tells you how important the other statistics are to your interpretation, because all the other statistics depend on the number of hands played. We introduced you to all these basic principles, using the pyramid system, in the first article on this topic on the importance of statistics in poker.

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Problems with statistics and number of hands played

The number of hands played is too low: what now?

Before interpreting any statistics, you should first look at the number of hands played. If the number of hands played is too low for a particular level, e.g. in a turn, it is advisable to rely only on those statistics that require a lower number of hands played. These are all first level stats, especially VPIP and PFR.

However, it is very important that you do not base your decision on other statistics that require a much higher number of hands played. If you only have 50 hands, you should never rely on e.g. turn stats (2nd barrel) or your opponent's pre-flop 3bet stats. Even though the number of hands played is far too low for these stats, the software still displays these stats, so be careful.

To avoid falling into this trap, get into the habit of first looking at the number of hands played before paying attention to other bets.

If the number of hands played is too small to classify your opponent as a certain player category, you should treat your opponent as an "unknown/unknown opponent".

Unknown player

Who is the "unknown player" you hear so much about? What are the most important assumptions you can make about him?

how-to-play-against-an-unknown-poker-player-jpg"Unknown players" depends strongly on the type of game and the dynamics of the limits. For example, an NL10 unknown player is treated completely differently from an NL100 unknown player. Let's assume that the unknown player has an average poker knowledge for the limits he plays. The unknown player takes the following actions in each betting round that are typical for that limit. Thus, we assume that players in passive limits have a more passive playing style.

So, generally speaking, an unknown player is a player who plays as a typical regular player within those limits. You don't consider him to be a special player, and you have to assume that he will play as he should play at these limits.

Missing statistics have to be calculated from already known statistics - is this possible?

This situation becomes interesting when you don't see values for certain stats or when the number of hands played is too low for higher level stats (e.g. river stats).

Suppose you are on the flop and you have a large enough number of hands played to be able to make a Level 2 interpretation of your opponent. So you have about 500 hands, but you want to get a good estimate of the odds that your opponent will bet on the flop and bet on the turn (Level III - 2nd barrel).

So, which statistics are relevant in this case? First of all, the opponent's range of flop cards when he is the pre-flop aggressor (numerical value of his I PFR), the numerical value of his II Continuing Bet on the flop, and his opponent's AF and WTS statistics.

By interpreting these statistics, you can predict how likely it is that your opponent will make a test bet on the turn. Of course, when you sit at the table, you also have to pay attention to the meta-game and other important factors such as the cards on the table, the position, the number of opponents, etc. So you have to pay attention to other important statistics and interpret them correctly.

So, as you can see, if you are missing a statistic, you can calculate it yourself using other existing statistics. Interpreting statistics teaches you how to think properly when carefully analysing a player's style, and how to use certain statistics in an overall context. Interpreting statistics can help you identify your opponent's style of play and how you can apply "missing statistics" to your opponent's style of play.

But remember the basic rule: the number of hands played is very important.

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The number of hands played is too high - could this be a problem?

This is a situation you may often encounter. Opponents, more or less successfully, create their own style of play depending on the limit. Therefore, regular players that you see at the tables frequently and whose hand count is extremely high will, over time, adapt to the style of play and stop making certain mistakes that you could exploit.

After all, think about it - within your limits, you are also a regular player. So ask yourself - how different is your current game from the one you played a few months ago?

So logically, you should pay attention to the current number of hands played, because if the number of hands played is very high, the statistics are already several months old. Your opponent's game may have changed a lot in the meantime, but you won't notice it by looking at the stats. But in any case, if you are hesitant, too many hands is always better than too few.


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Statistics and trends

The basic rule here is that the less specific a statistic is, the more stable its development will be. Good examples in this respect are the I VPIP and I PFR.

Statistics that depend on a particular situation tend to fluctuate more to one side or the other. For example, the check-raise on a turn is more dependent on the current situation when you are trying to make a decision.

Can you judge an opponent based on statistics alone?

You should be able to answer this question without problems. You already know that statistics are simply numbers indicating how often a certain action is taken. You also already know that statistics have to be interpreted at two levels, so that when you look at statistics with the naked eye, they do not really mean anything.

The first level is interpreting statistical averages in context. The second level is the interpretation of the considerations from the first level in a game situation. At the second level, you must already pay attention to things like the cards on the table, the history of the hands, the dynamics of the table, the reads, and other relevant factors that may influence the situation.

If you analyse your opponent's statistics well, you will eventually realise that the statistics are a much better indicator of your opponent's playing style than the cards they hold.

Each statistic is like a small piece that we can use to put together a whole picture that answers the question "what is this player's playing style?". If you learn to interpret these small pieces correctly, you will be able to draw many conclusions that will lead you to the right decisions at any time.

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Summary

After reading this article, you may have realised that even with all these poker apps and the player information they provide, how you handle and process all the information is up to you.

The numerical value of a statistic must be interpreted correctly in order for you to make a profitable decision in the game. The numerical value of a statistic is just a number that needs to be seen in its overall context. Interpretation chain nodesThe statistics we have already discussed show how widely a given statistic can be used.

If you have understood the content of this series of articles and are aware of all the dangers and pitfalls, you will soon be able to integrate a very powerful weapon into your game that will help you win even more money.

Source: PokerGuru.lt

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