Suspicion about Mike Postle's game can be traced back to more than half a year ago. At that time, no accusations were made against this player, but even then, some very interesting and unconventional plays could be observed:
As can be seen later, hands like those shown in the video are Mike Postle's tradition – reraising with nothing but a great opportunity to push the opponent out of the hand, value raising marginal hands against a much stronger opponent's range (even when he has a weaker hand), and so on.
Over time, and with his game strength not waning, Mike Postle began to be noticed by both Stones Poker Live commentators and viewers. Due to his exceptionally good play, this player gained many nicknames: Mike Apostle, Mike “Get There” Postle, Mike “God” Postle, and so on. Postle gained both many critics, who suspected his game, and fans, who considered him the best poker player in the world.
Of course, the critics' voices did not make any accusations against the player. This whole cheating scandal only took off after tweets from former Stones Gambling Hall employee Veronica Brill:
The player she refers to is, of course, Mike Postle. These tweets appeared quite unexpectedly, so many players began to defend Mike Postle, but at the same time, the accusations were taken seriously, and evidence began to be gathered online in one direction or another. Just a few days after the tweets appeared, Stones Gambling Hall announced that they had conducted an investigation and found that no cheating had occurred during the poker games. Of course, the online poker community did not give up so easily, and members of the Two Plus Two forum began their own investigation. Forum members created a separate thread to collect evidence. Soon, suspicions and potential evidence began to accumulate. It was noted that since July, Mike Postle rarely played cash games that were not livestreamed. At the same time, his game began to be analyzed more closely. For this purpose, a Google document was even created, where all the video material was uploaded. Each day's video material was examined by volunteers, who would suggest whether that session should be marked as “God Mode” (i.e., Mike Postle playing almost flawlessly). This document can be found here.
The document is full of suspiciously played hands. One of the most interesting is this:
Mike Postle: open to $6
Robert: 3bet to $26
Mike Postle: Call
Flop
Mike Postle: Check
Robert: Bet $20 into $58
Mike Postle: Call
Turn
Up to this point, the play looks quite standard for regular players. Maybe the sizing could be a bit different, but so far, nothing stands out.
Mike Postle: Check
Robert: Bet $50 into $98
Mike Postle: Fold
Such a play is incredible, knowing that Mike is a highly profitable player. We should ask ourselves what cards M. Postle expected if he decided that a top pair on the turn would fold to a small sizing. Such a play is impossible to expect from any good player, especially when the bet sizing is only ½ of the pot.
Of course, suspicions are strengthened not only by many similarly played hands. Other unusual behavior from Mike Postle was also noticed. For example, if the RFID did not read the cards, Mike almost always asked the player to place the cards on the sensor again. Usually, a poker player at the table neither knows that the RFID did not read the cards nor pays attention to it. Another aspect of unusual behavior is the constant looking down. Two Plus Two forum members speculate that Mike Postle kept a phone on his legs (this can sometimes be seen if you watch the video footage carefully). Suspicions were only strengthened by the observation that before important decisions or very unusual plays, Mike Postle did not miss the opportunity to look down, where he likely kept the phone.
Finally, Two Plus Two forum members began to track Mike Postle's winnings, investigate his BB/100 based on available information, and calculate his hourly profit. There are various statistical calculations, but all of them state that Mike Postle exceeds 100 BB/100 and has ~65% VPIP. This VPIP, by the way, includes UTG+2 42o and similar opens, so 65% might not even be the ceiling on days when Mike Postle played divinely. For any regular cash player, such statistics should raise suspicions:
There has been little defense heard from Mike Postle himself. The player assures everyone that his winnings and win rate are not that high. To explain certain hands, this player claims that the RFID incorrectly read his hand, so some bluffs were actually the strongest hand and vice versa. Of course, people quickly appeared online who showed that RFID rarely makes mistakes. In cases where it does, the cards are never changed in the middle of the hand:
Online, mostly in the Two Plus Two forums, many examples confirming suspicions of cheating were collected. The main theory of the cheating method is information from an insider. Two Plus Two forum members speculate that Mike Postle received information about the hands from a person who managed the livestream graphics (i.e., saw the hands on a computer). This would explain why Mike Postle only plays during livestreams, constantly looks at his phone, and has several sessions where he plays completely differently than viewers were used to seeing.
Finally, on October 8, Veronica Brill, several Stones Gambling Hall employees, and players of the mentioned games filed a lawsuit against Mike Postle and several other potentially related individuals. So far, the story stands at this point. We only know Mike Postle's lawyer's response to the lawsuit: “When I play poker, I lose almost every hand, so such winnings must be possible.”
It is still not entirely clear how the court case will turn out, as explaining poker intricacies to judges may be challenging. The document submitted to the court describes poker rules in great detail and how Mike Postle could have cheated, so we can only hope that the process will go smoothly.