Barcelona

The regular EuroLeague season winner Barcelona does not look as confident in the playoffs as many basketball experts and fans expected. They struggled against Zenit both at home and away, extending the series to 5 games. In the decisive match, Barcelona played as expected – confidently and without major mistakes, which led to a 26-point victory.

In the match against Milano Olimpia, we saw both sides of Barcelona. This time, Barca started the game well but seemed to fall asleep in the third quarter, waking up only in the decisive fourth quarter and barely avoiding a fiasco. It can be said that the team's most expensive player, N. Mirotić, played his first good match in the playoffs, scoring 21 points and grabbing 6 rebounds. The team also shined with C. Higgins, who made the decisive shot, and P. Gasol, who started the match well and scored 10 points in 11 minutes.

This season, Barcelona has not won against Anadolu Efes even once, although both meetings were very close. In both matches, Anadolu Efes was led by the guard duo – Micic and Larkin, who together scored 40+ points. Stopping this duo will be one of Barcelona's main tasks on Sunday to win the EuroLeague trophy.

Anadolu Efes

Anadolu Efes' game at the beginning of the season raised many questions, but those questions were answered as the season progressed. Unlike Barcelona, Anadolu Efes looked like the stronger team in all 5 matches of the first playoff series against Real Madrid. However, after dominating at home, they clearly relaxed in the third match, which was supposed to close the series, and Efes lost the 4th quarter by 14 points, allowing Real to return to the series.

A similar story continued in the 4th meeting of these teams, where Real won the 4th quarter by 15 points, despite trailing by 9 points after 3 quarters. Taking the initiative, Real fought for victory in the decisive series match, where the teams played point to point until the middle of the 4th quarter, and only at the very end did Efes manage to pull out the victory. The whole series was like one big roller coaster, and the uncertainty carried over into the Final Four.

After leading by 16 points against CSKA Moscow after three quarters, Anadolu Efes decided to relax and at one point in the fourth quarter had only a 1-point advantage, allowing CSKA to take a potentially game-winning shot, which W. Clyburn missed. At one moment, Efes looks like undoubtedly the best EuroLeague team, sweeping opponents with impressive offense, but in the next quarter, we see that this team can squander a lead built over 3 quarters in just a few minutes, and if they fall asleep against Barcelona, they might not be able to “pull” the victory.

Prediction

We are in for a very interesting basketball spectacle, whose winner is very hard to predict. Both teams have many strengths and few weaknesses, so the team that better exploits the opponent's mistakes and plays more confidently will win. Bookmakers favor Anadolu Efes, but after the circus they showed and being one shot away from elimination, despite having a 16-point lead after 3 quarters, this choice does not seem so certain. The match is at least 50/50, maybe even slightly in Barcelona's favor, so the given 2+ odds for Barca's victory have value.