Fisherman’s Challenge Predictions – What are the Chances of Winning for Top Professionals?

The purpose of this short article is to calculate, in an amateur way, the probabilities of which players have the greatest chances of grabbing the top prize in this year's Fisherman's Challenge tournament. Of course, as with any attempt to predict the future using past data, inaccuracies arise simply because of this fact.

It should be noted that these probabilities are not completely mathematically accurate. The formula used for the calculation is as follows: data of the top 20 players collected from the Hendon Mob database, and the average “Global Poker Index Ranking” is derived. This average is divided by each player's ranking. Then, additional points are awarded to each player if they managed to reach a prize place in any of the previous Fisherman's Challenge tournaments according to the formula (X-(N-1)/10), where X is the number of prize places, N is the place taken. For example, taking first place and having 35 prize places, an additional 3.5 points are awarded.

Additional points are awarded to balance the differences between players whose “Global Poker Index Ranking” is low but who show consistent and good results in the Fisherman's Challenge tournaments. Of course, such calculations cannot completely accurately reflect reality, as it is impossible to collect absolutely all data about players and create appropriate mathematical tools to process them. The data presented below should be viewed as a comparison of one with another or as probabilities “close to 1”.

The players were selected based on the prize places taken in previous Fisherman's Challenge tournaments and their recent activity in live poker tournaments.

Betsafe Fisherman's Challenge starts this Thursday at the Olympic Casino Poker Club in Vilnius. It is the largest and most profitable poker tournament series in Lithuania. More info – click here.

* Tomas Jozonis has an incredibly high probability due to his very high “Global Poker Index Ranking” – 268. The next closest person in this tournament, Aleksandras Voišnis, is 2739th.