H Group
In a group that many basketball fans and basketball experts have already predicted to be called the "Death Eaters", the Lithuanian national team seems to have a better chance of qualifying for the next round. As soon as the draws were made and the groups were formed, the Lithuanian team was predicted to finish only 3rd in this group and to be eliminated in the first round, but due to the circumstances, with the withdrawal and refusal of important players from both the Canadian and Australian national camps, the chances of Lithuania's national team to reach the next round have increased and now the team is already being named as the favourite to win the group. In reality, there are many different possible outcomes in this group, as all the teams are really competitive and have their own strengths, so no opponent in this group can be underestimated, and in this review we will take a closer look at each of the teams in the group.
Lithuania's chances in Group H
The Lithuanian national team is showing better and better form with each competition and, at least for now, the performance is very positive for the upcoming World Championships. The final 12 is not yet clear, but the core of the team will definitely remain the same as in recent years, and the last 2 players not going to the Championship will probably be chosen between M. Geben, A. Butkevičius and Ž. Janavičius. The choice is of course a difficult one, as each of them has their own plus points, but in the overall context none of them would have been a cornerstone player on which the national team's performance would largely depend.
Potential national team leaders:
J. Valančiūnas - The Memphis Grizzlies centre, who averaged almost 16 points and 9 rebounds, is considered to be the key player to lead the team forward, as he does every year. Repeatedly criticized for not playing as well as in the NBA, not stretching the team, etc., Valanciunas will be looking to prove this summer that he has improved and is used to being the leader of the national team. Valanciunas should be one of the most dominant centers in this championship, considering that very few teams have players who can slow Valanciunas down under the basket.
D. Sabonis - The Indiana Pacers forward, who will form a frontline tandem with Valanciunas, averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds in 74 games played this season. Sabonis' improvement has been felt in friendlies and it is likely that in China, the 23-year-old Sabonis will be one of the team's core players around whom the offence will revolve in Valanciunas' absence.
M. Kalnietis - Averaging 10 points and 6 assists for Lyon Asvel, the Eurocup-playing guard is, as always, one of the most important players going into an international championship. No matter how the club season is going, the captain of the national team shows his best basketball when playing for the National Team. A big part of the team's success will depend on Kalnietis' ability to create a game with two towers on the court and to create opportunities for shots.
A friendly match: The Lithuanian national team is one of the teams that have played the most friendlies - 8. Although the first 3 of the 4 matches were difficult (2 losses to Serbia, 2 losses to Spain), the team managed to win 4 consecutive matches by thumping margins - 87-46 over Finland, 88-72 over Russia, 86-57 over South Korea and 91-56 over Angola. The losses to Serbia should not be exaggerated, as both defeats were by just 4 points and there were certainly plenty of chances to win at least one of the two encounters. Overall, the team looks really strong and it is to be hoped that the game will reach the best possible level before the start of the championship.
Forecast: The odds of 2.4 for the Lithuanian national team to win the group are 2.4, which means that the national team is considered the favourite to win Group H. The main battle for the group title is likely to be between Lithuania and Australia, and it all depends on which team plays the better game on the day, as they both have different strengths and a lot will depend on who plays to their strengths. We predict a 1-2 finish for the national team.
Will Australia live up to expectations?
The Australian national team has assembled arguably the strongest possible line-up for the World Basketball Championship. Of course, players like R. Broekhoff, J. Bolden, D. Exum, T. Maker and B. Simmons is a big loss, but there are many teams with even bigger losses in this championship, so in the big picture the Australian team looks very solid even with the current players. Veterans P. Mills, J. Ingles, A. Bogut, M. Dellavedova and A. Baynes are likely to be the main leaders of the Australian team at this championship, with the addition of C. Goulding, who has been shining in the Australian National League, and J. Landale, the rookie of Zalgiris Kaunas.
P. Mills - The guard, who averaged 10 points and 3 assists for the San Antonio Spurs, is, as always, one of the most important pieces of the puzzle for the Australian national team. A great dribble-attacker, who can also break through and play 2-on-2 with the centre, he will definitely be one of the hardest players to stop in the championship. He only needs to hit a couple of shots and then he may not even be able to play double defence, because once he senses the shot, Mills is unstoppable, as he has already proved by leading the Australian team to victory over the USA in the last friendly.
J. Ingles - The left-handed forward of the Utah Jazz, whose role in the NBA continues to grow every year, will definitely be an important part of the Australian national team. The 31-year-old forward, who has excellent court vision and pass distribution skills, will be the team's second playmaker after Mills. With his long-range accuracy and his ability to create his own shot, the team has high hopes of achieving top results.
A. Bogut - Although the sunset of this veteran's career is getting closer and closer each season, one cannot help but admire his ability to read the game, to build great screens and his leadership qualities. Although the injury-plagued player has not been in the same good shape as he used to be in recent seasons, he has proven time and again in this pre-Championship cycle that he can finish attacks, move the ball across the court and be useful on both sides of the court.
A friendly match: The Australian national team has already played four friendlies in the run-up to the World Cup. In the first test game, they lost 70-90 to Canada, and in the next game, just 2 days later, the Aussies came back 81-73. The Australians also played 2 games against the USA: after losing the first game 86-102, the Australians managed to win the second game 98-94. Mills, who scored 13 of the team's 20 points in the 4th quarter, and Ingles, who scored 13 of the team's 20 points in the 4th quarter, pulled the team to victory, ending the USA's dominance in international competition.
Forecasts: Although the Australians lost once to Canada, part of that can be blamed on the fact that it was the first test match for the team and a lot of childish mistakes were made that will not be repeated at the championship. Australia's failure to qualify for the next round would be seen as a complete disaster for a country with such a strong squad, so it is likely that the team fighting for the first place with the Lithuanian team will finish 1-2 in the group and will move on to the next round.
Will Canada be able to defy the early predictions?
The Canadian team is without any doubt one of the most "bloodied" teams at this World Cup. A team that could have potentially had as many as 17 NBA players on the roster has only 1 NBA player in the final roster. A. Wiggins (Timberwolves) , K. Olynyk (Heat), J. Murray (Nuggets), D. Powell (Mavericks), D. Brooks (Grizzlies), T. Lyles (Spurs), S. Gilgeous-Alexander (Clippers) - these and many more players have been dropped from the Canadian team for this championship, which is a huge loss considering how well some of these young players have fit in with their teams and how much of an important part of the team they have been able to be. Despite the losses, Canada had a competitive team to compete with in the World Cup qualifiers and most of that team will be representing the national team in China. The Canadian team should continue to move forward:
K. Pangos - The player, who is well-known to all Lithuanian basketball fans, moved to Barcelona this season and is sure to be one of the most important players for the Canadian national team at the upcoming World Basketball Championship. The guard, who is a great creator of chances, a 2-on-2 player and has a good arm, has already shown in friendly games that he is ready to be a leader of the team. The only thing Pangos has been noticeably lacking in the preparation stages is more initiative. In the game against New Zealand, with just a couple of seconds left and the score tied, the player who broke under the basket decided not to shoot from a great position, but to pass the ball, which ended up in a missed shot. Pangos should take responsibility for the last shots in order to at least advance to the next round.
K. Wiltjer - The forward, who averages 10 points and 3 rebounds for Unicaja Malaga, will be one of the key players for the national team at the World Championship. A great long-range attacker and a playmaker who can spread the floor, he will definitely be an important part of the team. In friendly games, it has been seen time and time again that the Canadian team struggles to find solutions on offense in the first few seconds, and some of those shots are often taken by Wiltjer, who has just a little bit of space. There is no doubt that Nurse will find ways to create opportunities for this player to shine, and it will be up to Wiltjer himself to make those situations work.
K. Birch - the only remaining NBA player on the team, had just 5 points and 4 rebounds in 13 minutes for the Orlando Magic. Although Birch is not a long-range shooter, he will add strength under the basket, which this team would definitely lack without him. Birch can also play a good 2-on-2, finish off attacks and hustle under the basket, so he will definitely be an important part of the team's success in the upcoming championship.
A friendly match: The Canadian team has already played 6 control games and won 4 of them. The Canadians, who defeated Nigeria 96-87 in the first game of the pre-season series, were unable to do the same in the second meeting 2 days later, when they had to concede 81-90 to the Nigerian team. The Canadians also shared the victory with the Australian national team: after winning the first meeting 90-70, the Canadians lost the second one 73-81. The last two games were played against New Zealand, with the Canadian team winning both times: 122-88 and 103-100.
Forecast: The Canadian team is perhaps the most disadvantaged group, as the chances of qualifying for the next round would be much higher in any other group. Both Lithuania and Australia looked much more confident in the prelims, but also more solid on paper. NBA champions' coach Nurse would have to make a big impression to get this Canadian team to the next round, but it is quite unlikely. The Canadian team should be done with this championship in the group stage.
What are Senegal's chances of surprising in Group H?
Senegal, the last opponent of the Lithuanian national team in the group stage, has already announced the final 12 to represent the country at the World Basketball Championship. The final Senegalese squad is notable for its height, with only 2 players under 2m tall in the squad and an average height of 203 cm. There is also no shortage of veterans and the average age of the squad is 29 years. Although not all of the Senegalese players are familiar to the average basketball fan, some of them play for strong clubs in France and the Euroleague. Maurice Ndour (Valencia) and Mouhammad Faye (Crvena Zvezda) will play in the EuroLeague next season and should be the mainstays of the team in this competition. Senegal also has some losses, with two NBA big men, G. Dieng and T. Fall, who would have further strengthened their already powerful front line.
A friendly match: The Senegalese team was far from shining in the pre-season, with only 1 win out of 6 matches played. A 54-117 loss to Italy in the first pre-season game, followed by a 75-69 win over Venezuela, followed by 4 consecutive losses: 56-73 to Russia, 59-94 to Turkey, 63-71 to Jordan and 74-81 to Venezuela. Considering that the Senegalese team's opponents in the control games were far from being the strongest and that only 1 victory was achieved, the picture is not positive.
Forecast: Senegal is the undisputed outsider in Group H, with odds of more than 100+ to qualify for the next round. The team, which has performed tragically in friendlies, is unlikely to miraculously improve its game at the start of the championship and to be able to surprise all the team's critics. The team's main strength will be under the basket, but given how strong the front lines of both the Lithuanian and Australian teams will be, this advantage will hardly save Senegal in their encounters with these teams. Senegal should remain in 4th place and finish the tournament in the group stage.
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