Kaunas Žalgiris – Real Madrid (3.30 odds – 1.35 odds, betsafe)
Another year under the leadership of Šarūnas Jasikevičius, when before the season most basketball experts write off Žalgiris, they aim to prove that it is not for nothing that they managed to reach the top 8 strongest teams in Europe for 2 years in a row. Since the team composition has essentially changed and there are new, young players who apparently have not yet fully grasped Šaras' game philosophy, Žalgiris is currently struggling and has not yet won any victories on the European front. However, it should not be made into a tragedy, as they played against strong teams: the Basques have been a mystery to Žalgiris for years and are undoubtedly one of the most inconvenient teams for the Kaunas team to play against, while the Milan team is much stronger and more organized this season. The start of the Euroleague is tough, but the home match against Real's team can be a very good test and challenge before the upcoming matches against potentially weaker Euroleague teams.
On the other side of the barricades, we have the Real Madrid team, which started the season ideally – 8 wins out of 8, including 2 matches in the Euroleague. Real got rid of the injury-prone center G. Ayon during the offseason and replaced him with J. Mickey, who looked great last season with Khimki. This center is a great replacement for W. Tavares, as he is much more athletic, fights well for rebounds, and can finish attacks in various ways, both with back-to-the-basket play and mid-range shots. Although Real's numbers at the start of the season look impressive, it should be noted that although they won 2 matches in the Euroleague, they were not as easy as many expected: at home against “Ulker” they won by only 4 points, and “Maccabi” was defeated only after an incredible three-pointer by J. Carroll, which turned the score around with 2 seconds left in the match. Although the Spaniards are considered the favorites for tomorrow's match, it will not be as easy as it might seem at first glance.
Main highlights of the match
Fast Real Madrid attacks
Undoubtedly, one of Real's strongest sides is their fast offense. Every time they defend, the ball is quickly played to the other side of the court and they try to find the slightest opportunities for shots, and if unsuccessful, they organize positional attacks. Campazzo, Laprovittola, Lull – all of them can create a scoring opportunity for a teammate or attack themselves immediately after dribbling the ball. How well Žalgiris manages to handle the Spaniards' fast offense can have a very big impact on the match result.
Three-point shooting
The Madrid team realizes three-point shots with a 41.8% accuracy, while the Kaunas team hits only 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Real has 3 players shooting 50% or better from long range: J. Taylor (55%), J. Carroll (57%), and R. Fernandez (50%), while only A. Milaknis from Žalgiris hits three-pointers with a 50% accuracy. Even minimally slowing down the Spanish long-range artillery could lead to a better result, but it is undoubtedly important to hit their own shots, although Žalgiris has not been shining in shooting this season.
Home advantage
Once again, the arena will be packed, so the home advantage will have an impact, and it is hoped that the enthusiasm will help to shoot better, as although good opportunities for shots are created, the shots just do not fall. Žalgiris has a young, ambitious roster with important players who have not played in the Euroleague before, so the tension is definitely felt, but again, the home advantage should help to reduce it.
Previous meetings
Žalgiris and Real have a long mutual history, dominated by the Madrid club. Nevertheless, the last few mutual meetings, with Jasikevičius at the helm of Žalgiris, have been close: Last year in the first round, Real won 79-90, but in the second round, in one of the most important matches of the season, Žalgiris defeated the Spaniards away with a score of 93-76. Overall, the last few matches have been very high-scoring, and it is likely that we will see something similar tomorrow.
Prediction
Tomorrow's match against one of the Euroleague favorites will show how much Žalgiris has improved and is likely to reveal the biggest current weaknesses of the team. Although the favorite of the match is undoubtedly the Spanish club, Žalgiris at home is a tough nut to crack for any team. The only concern is that Žalgiris does not have a good history playing against Spanish clubs, and the latter are very stylistically inconvenient opponents for the Kaunas club.
Although Žalgiris has struggled offensively in the Euroleague this season, sooner or later they should adapt and start making their shots. Real plays fast basketball and attacks well, and there are defensive gaps in both teams, which should result in a high-scoring and visually appealing game. The current total of 157.5 points (betsafe) is not high, considering the circumstances. Abroad, totals of 160 points are already being offered, so 157.5 points with 1.9 odds is probably the best choice for tomorrow's match. Good luck to those betting and enjoy the game!
