The ATP 1000 tournament in Cincinnati is the last Masters series tournament before one of the biggest tennis tournaments on the tour – the US Open. Both of last year's Cincinnati finalists, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, exited the tournament in earlier stages, so this year the tournament will have a new champion. The final match features Russian Daniil Medvedev against Belgian David Goffin. An exciting and intense final awaits, and we will delve deeper into both finalists.
Daniil Medvedev
Currently ranked 8th in the world, the Russian is experiencing a career breakthrough and is playing the best season of his career. Demonstrating incredible form in recent weeks, Medvedev not only rose to the 8th ranking spot but will also play in his third consecutive final tonight. Before arriving in Cincinnati, the Russian played in the finals of the ATP 1000 tournament in Montreal and the ATP 500 tournament in Washington. Interestingly, in both tournaments, Medvedev did not lose a single set until the final, but he lost both finals in straight sets to R. Nadal (no. 2) and N. Kyrgios (no. 27). This fact can be explained by the player's youth and inability to handle the pressure against more experienced opponents in the finals, but it is likely that as time goes on, the Russian's game will become more confident in all stages of tournaments.
Regarding the Cincinnati tournament, many experts speculated that Medvedev would not dominate as he did in previous tournaments due to possible fatigue and the desire to prepare for the upcoming US Open, but the Russian proved them wrong by reaching the final. The first four rounds, played against K. Edmund (no. 30), B. Paire (no. 29), J. Struff (no. 36), and A. Rublev (no. 70), were won convincingly without losing a single set. In the semifinals, the best Russian tennis player had to face last year's champion Novak Djokovic, and after losing the first set, it seemed that the Russian's journey in this tournament would end in the semifinals. However, he managed to hold on and take the initiative in the second set, eventually winning the match by breaking his opponent's serve twice in the third set. Below you can see the highlights of the match:
Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic match highlights:
Interestingly, Medvedev was previously considered one of the best young tennis players with a bright future, but he lacked stability. The player often broke down psychologically and made many unforced errors, but last year changes in Medvedev's personal life had a positive impact on his career. In an interview with Tennis World, the Russian mentioned that his wife had a positive influence on his career – in the same year, being ranked only 60th, Medvedev managed to finish the season ranked 15th, and this year he has already risen to the Top 10. You can read more about it here:.
In this tournament, Medvedev's first serve is working excellently, leading in aces, and he is hitting well with both hands. It is hard to find weak spots in the Russian's game, as his current form is impressive, and it is no wonder he is entering the final as the clear favorite.
David Goffin
Currently ranked 19th, the 28-year-old Belgian reached the final similarly to Medvedev, losing only one set throughout the tournament. In the first round, Goffin gave a set to T. Fritz (no. 25), and then easily defeated G. Pella (no. 22), A. Mannarino (no. 59), and R. Gasquet (no. 56) in straight sets. This ATP Masters tournament is one of Goffin's favorites, as evidenced by his excellent results: last year he reached the semifinals against R. Federer, where he had to withdraw at the beginning of the second set due to injury, and this year he reached the semifinals again. The Belgian looks great on fast surfaces, receiving opponents' serves well and taking control.
This season has not been the best for Goffin, far from it: due to injuries and poor form until the start of the grass season, specifically the ATP 500 tournament in Halle, Germany. Goffin failed to go beyond the quarterfinals in 15 tournaments this year until the mentioned tournament in Germany, where he reached the final but lost to R. Federer 6-7 1-6. Since then, his results have improved, and he reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, where he lost to N. Djokovic. It seems that Goffin performs much better in larger tournaments with higher stakes.
Goffin's match highlights:
Before the upcoming final match, the Belgian was happy to have reached this stage and promised to do everything in the final match to stay as long as possible and create good chances to triumph in the tournament. Since Goffin did not have to play the quarterfinal due to Nishioka's withdrawal, he should be in much better physical condition compared to Medvedev. The Russian not only had to play a long semifinal with Djokovic, but this is also his third final in three weeks, having played 15 matches in 19 days, while the Belgian had a much lighter schedule.
Head-to-head history
These players have met twice and shared a victory each: Medvedev triumphed 3-0 at the 2019 Australian Open, while Goffin won 3-2 at Wimbledon 2019.
Prediction
Both players are currently at the peak of their form, and the match should be very intense and interesting. Although Medvedev is dominating and seems unstoppable, this is again a final, and the Russian has already lost two finals before. Moreover, he has to play his 16th match in 20 days. It's only a matter of time before fatigue sets in, and combined with the pressure of the final, we can expect more unforced errors and poorer game episodes from the Russian. Goffin is a more experienced player and had a much lighter schedule leading up to this final, giving him a significant advantage. Medvedev is considered a clear favorite by bookmakers, but there is much more value in betting on Goffin. It is very likely that the Belgian will not lose by more than 3.5 games (1.87 odds betsafe), and those who like to take risks can try betting on Goffin's victory at 3 odds.
