To make a significant leap from the standard model to a detailed analysis of an opponent, the mind must develop a strong perception. You have to learn to empathise with your opponent and find out how he sees the world. The first step in analysing an opponent begins with a psychological portrait summarising the psychological tendencies of the opponent.
For example, an opponent you've been playing with for a while raises on the river, in a spot where he could only represent a runner-runner line. Let's say we've never been in a similar situation with this player before, so we don't have any indication of what he's going to do next in this situation. Does that force us to resort to the standard model?
Of course not - as poker players, we can expand our psychological conclusions in situations we have not seen before. There are some very simplistic portraits that most players like to use, such as "he's very aggressive" or "he's a complete nit", but we aim to create strong and detailed psychological portraits.
There are four main aspects that make up the psychological profile:
- Taking risks
Risk-taking behaviour shows your opponent's willingness to play in situations where he or she can get lucky. You are most likely to notice this attitude by following your opponent's risky bluffs. There are bluffs that are universal, such as a preflop 4-bet bluff or a 3-barrell in obvious situations where your range is weak. These situations do not necessarily manifest themselves in the first aspect. To distinguish the first trait, look out for situations where a bluff is not necessary and would be very risky. If the player consistently chooses or systematically avoids these situations, you can attribute this trait to him.
This feature can also be extended to risky, heroic or creative play. Players who have strongly embraced this trait are very keen on heroic play, riskier bluffs, FPS-type play, and sometimes care more about making the game "sick" of trends than about EV optimisation.
Bridging also has a significant impact on risk-taking. A player who has experienced a hot tilt will always play more risky in situations where a cold tilt player will show a depressed risk-taking game. Similarly, players who play above their rolls are playing a lower risk game and therefore have the opportunity to steal pots from such players, unless they are also experiencing a hot bridge.
- Approach to difficulties
The second trait, the attitude to difficulty, is about how your opponent perceives the complexity of the game and how he plays at the time. A difficult run means that there is an implied cheat or a hand that is not at the top of the rank. There are two main types of complex moves. The first is where the hand has to do something twisted at some point in the hand, such as a check back in a strange situation or a smaller bet than expected. The second is where you deliberately choose to represent a stronger or medium hand.
Attitude is like a yardstick that shows how your competitor handles difficult situations. Most mid-level players expect too much from these situations. At the highest level of the game, difficult situations are more frequent than at the entry level, so the dynamics of difficulty become particularly strong and detailed. In a low-stakes game, you will find that opponents like to either overestimate or underestimate this trait, which can come out in their playing style. The aspect we are discussing also correlates with beliefs about other people's intelligence. Those who underestimate this trait tend to see people as intelligent enough, while those who overestimate it tend to see players as not very intelligent.
In the second part of this article, we will discuss two more important features that are relevant for a clear description of the opponent.
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