Last time we calculated together that if we put Q on top, we have ~49% to catch the K we need, or one of the remaining 5, and not get burnt. So we have a percentage of ~49, but that doesn't answer any question at all about whether or not we should take the risk.
The first thing to understand is that we can never analyse a hand in a vacuum. We must always look at how our opponents are playing and how many points they can score. Let's try to calculate things in more detail and look at a few interesting moments so that you know how to proceed next time.
To simplify the explanation and avoid drowning in a sea of options, let's take two lines. Firstly, we choose a safe layout and don't take the risk with QQ on top. In this case, we have a flush at the bottom, which gives us +4 points for royalties. If we put a 9 in the middle and a 4 on top, there is still a small chance that we will draw both K and Q at the same time on the next draw, but to avoid confusion we will leave this small probability for other, deeper articles.
So there we have it, 4 points for royalties, on the second line we can't get any more points because there are no more 9, and on the top if we take out 44 it won't give us any royalties points either. So we earn 4 points from royalties. Let's see what our opponents are doing. The worst thing we can allow ourselves to do in Chinese poker is to allow our opponents to scoop us (lose all three lines). And the best way is to scoop our opponents 🙂 So let's see what our opponents are doing.
We are +1 point ahead of the Eurokoz bottom line. In the middle we have 99 vs 22. And he has only 1 out left to improve his middle combination (not counting pairs), so for the time being it's likely that the middle line is ours too, i.e. +1 point. On top we would have Q4x which makes it likely that the opponent with his Qxx can win under the kicker, so -1. Very importantly, the opponent has no royalties and has already made two pairs at the bottom, which means that he will no longer be able to get royalties in the middle, so vs Eurokoz we have +5 points.
Now let's look at our riskier option, with QQ on top. Bottom flush +4 and top QQ +7 points. In Chinese poker, each fantasy is worth ~7 points on average. So, if we pick up a fantasy, we will earn +7 points in the long period. So, in a vacuum, we have +18 points for royalties and fantasy (safe option +4 points).
Now let's compare our hand with Eurokoz, at the bottom it is 100% clear that it is ours. In the middle, if we don't burn, 99% is ours too, because Eurokoz would have to draw two K's out of the two remaining ones in order to overtake us. The most realistic probability is that if he improves his hand it will be two pairs lower than ours. So +1 for the bottom and +1 for the middle. QQ on top against this opponent changes the situation dramatically, because we get a real chance to scoop him, i.e. to win on top as well, and then we get another +3 points. One point for each line and another +3 for winning all three lines. So with QQ there is a good chance to earn another 6 points (safe option 1).
Generally safe option = +5 points. QQ option = +22 points.
But we won't always get the outs we need, we have to multiply our points by the percentages we have.
22 * 0.49 = 10.78 points. Also, how many points will we get the next time we don't draw QQ? The opponent we are analysing has no extra points for royalties, so if we get burnt it will be -6 points.
So add up all the numbers: (22 * 0.49) + (-6 * 0.51) = 7.72
Safe line +5 // Aggressive +7.72
So in the long run, choosing a more aggressive line will earn us 2.72 more points. It may not sound like much to some, but in the long run, this decision can make the difference between a winning player and a losing player.
However, this is only one side of the coin, and we need to analyse our situation against the other opponent "caph6". In this case our situation against him is much worse, but let's start from the beginning. We compare the lines. The bottom line is won by our opponent (higher flush) for us -1. Royalties destroy each other. On the second line, we are likely to win with 99 vs our opponent's lower pair. And on the top line, we are likely to lose with Q high vs A high. So, the safe line has a -1 point (of course, this can change, but the most realistic prediction would be this).
Let's take a look at our QQ variant. In this case, the opponent's bottom line is -1 for us. The middle with two pairs is likely to be ours, unless the opponent draws 777 trips or a straight, so the middle is +1 in our favour. Top +1 with QQ. At this point, it is very important that all the AAs are already out. The only way for him to beat our QQ is to draw the two remaining KKs. So we have +1 for the QQ on top and another +7 for the average fantasy +7. Total: 15 points.
To get a full count, we need to know how many points we would lose if we didn't catch our QQ. So -6 overall and another -4 for the opponent's flush on the bottom. We have all the numbers we need.
Calculation: 15 x 0.49 + -10 x 0.51 = 7.35 - 5.1 = 2.25.
So in the long run, our aggressive solution will earn 3.25 points more than our cautious line.
It goes without saying that it is not possible to learn all situations by heart or to calculate each situation during the game due to time constraints. With this article, we wanted to show you how to analyse situations together and find the right solutions in the simplest possible way.
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