FIBA World Championship 2019, Spain - Serbia

PokerioSchool.com
The second round of the FIBA World Championship comes to an end tomorrow with the second and final game before the quarter-finals. On Sunday at 15:30 Lithuanian time, the long-awaited meeting between arguably the two best European teams of the last few years will take place. In this preview, we will share our insights and predictions from this match.  

Spain vs Serbia (4.9 x 1.18, betsafe) 

Both teams were ranked 2nd and 4th respectively before the start of the championship. As the championship has started and gained momentum, more and more experts see the Serbian team as favourites to win the whole championship, while the Spanish team, which is far from being in the best shape yet, is slipping down the rankings. Of course, rankings are subjective and cannot be relied upon alone, but against teams of a similar level, while the Spanish team is struggling, the Serbian team is breaking records and smashing everyone in succession. Whatever the case, in meetings between teams of this level, it is very important which team will go into the match better prepared and will better execute the pre-match plan.

The value of victory

The top two teams in Group J will play the teams from Group I in the quarter-finals. Both Serbia and Spain have already qualified for the quarter-finals, and this match will determine which team finishes 1st in the group and which team will have a relatively weaker opponent in the next round. Earlier, a match between Argentina and Poland will determine the final positions in Group I. It is very likely that the winner of the Serbia-Spain match will meet Poland in the quarter-finals and the loser Argentina. The winner of Group L would also avoid the USA in the semi-finals and would theoretically only meet the USA in the championship final, so the price of victory is high.

National team leaders

The Spanish national team's top scorers are Hernangomez (12 points, 6.8 rebounds), Rubio (13.5 points, 5 assists) and Gasol (11.8 points, 5.8 rebounds).

The top scorers for Serbia are N. Jokic (13.5 points, 7 rebounds), B. Bogdanovic (19.3 points, 4.5 rebounds), N. Bjelica (14.3 points, 5.3 rebounds).

Results of previous matches

In the group stage, Spain beat Tunisia 101-62 (Rubio 17 points, 9 assists), Puerto Rico 73-63 (Gasol 19 points), and Iran 73-65 (Gasol 16 points). Spain started the second round with a win in a non-result game, beating Italy 67-60 (J. Hernangomez 16 points).

The Serbian team was completely unmatched in the group stage and simply crushed all opponents: 105-59 against Angola (B. Bogdanovic 24 points), 126-67 against the Philippines (N. Bjelica 20 points), 92-77 against Italy (B. Bogdanovic 31 points). Puerto Rico (N. Bjelica 18 points) was defeated by an obscene 90-47 margin in the second round.

Forecast

It is easy to see that the Spanish team struggled in the first round even against much weaker opponents, e.g. in the game against Iran, at one point in the 4th period, it was possible to bet on a Spanish victory at odds of 2.1. Although the line-up is not bad, most of the players are well known to every basketball fan and play for good European/NBA clubs. The Serbian team, unlike Spain, dominates against weaker opponents, leaving absolutely no chance to even think about winning. The only game against Italy was one in which the Serbs had to sweat a bit. In the 3rd quarter, the Italians managed to catch up with the Serbians to a 2 point deficit, but then, after a Bogdanovic spurt, the Serbians escaped irreversibly.The Italians showed that it is possible to fight against Serbia, but you have to do it until the end. The world is currently standing on a +10 point line for Spain with odds of 1.9 and this bet is worth a look. The Spanish team is experienced and talented enough to give Serbia their first serious challenge and tomorrow we should see a much tougher fight than many expect.