Last time, we calculated together that if we place Q on top, we have ~49% chance of catching the needed K or one remaining 5 and not burning out. So, we have a percentage of ~49, but this doesn't answer any question of whether we should take the risk or not??
First, we need to understand that we can never analyze a hand in a vacuum. We always have to evaluate how our opponents play and how many points they can collect. Let's try to calculate everything in more detail and review a few interesting moments so you know how to act next time.
To make it simpler to explain and not get lost in a sea of options, let's take two lines. First, we choose a safe layout and don't risk with QQ on top. In this case, we have a flush at the bottom, which gives us +4 points for royalties. If we place 9 in the middle and 4 on top, there is still a slight chance that in the next draw we will pull both K and Q at the same time, but to avoid too much confusion, we'll leave this small probability for other, deeper articles.
So we have 4 points for royalties, in the second row we can't get any points because there are no more 9s, and if we pull 44 on top, it also won't add any royalties points. So, from royalties, we earn 4 points. Let's see what our opponents are placing. The worst thing we can allow ourselves to do in Chinese poker is to let our opponents scoop us (lose all three lines). And the best thing is to scoop our opponents 🙂 So let's see what our opponents are doing.
Against “Eurokoz” the bottom row gives us +1 point. In the middle, we have 99 vs 22. And he has only 1 out left to improve his middle combination (excluding pairs), so for now, it's likely that the middle row is also ours, i.e., +1 point. On top, we should have Q4x, which means the opponent with his Qxx can likely win by kicker, so -1. It's very important that the opponent doesn't have royalties and has already placed two pairs at the bottom, which means he won't be able to get royalties in the middle row, so against “Eurokoz” we have +5 points.
Now let's examine our riskier option, with QQ on top. At the bottom, flush +4 and on top QQ +7 points. In Chinese poker, each fantasy is worth an average of ~7 points. So, if we collect a fantasy, in the long run, we will earn +7 points. So, in a vacuum, for royalties and fantasy, we have +18 points (safe option +4 points).
Now let's compare our hand with “Eurokoz”, at the bottom it's already 100% clear that it's ours. In the middle, if we don't burn out, it's also 99% ours because “Eurokoz” would need to pull two Ks from the remaining two to overtake us. The most likely scenario is that if he improves his combination, it will be two smaller pairs than ours. So +1 for the bottom and +1 for the middle. QQ on top against this opponent radically changes the situation because we get a real chance to scoop him, i.e., win on top as well, then we get another +3 points. One point for each line and another +3 for winning all three lines. So with QQ, there's a big chance to earn another 6 points (safe option 1).
Overall safe option = +5 points. QQ option = +22 points.
But we won't always pull our needed outs, we have to multiply our points by our percentages.
22 * 0.49 = 10.78 points. We also need to find out how many points we will get the next time when we don't pull QQ? Our analyzed opponent doesn't have extra points for royalties, so if we burn out, it will be -6 points.
So we add up all the numbers: (22 * 0.49) + (-6 * 0.51) = 7.72
Safe line +5 // Aggressive +7.72
So in the long run, choosing the more aggressive line will earn us 2.72 points more. Maybe for some, it doesn't seem like much, but in the long run, such a decision can make the difference between a winning player and a losing one.
However, this is only one side of the coin, we still need to analyze our situation against another opponent “caph6”. In this case, our situation against him is much worse, but let's start from the beginning. Let's compare the lines. The bottom line is won by our opponent (higher flush) for us -1. Royalties cancel each other out. In the second line, our victory is likely with 99 vs the opponent's smaller pair. And on top, our likely loss with Q high vs A high. So, the safe line has -1 point (of course, this can change, but the most realistic forecast would be this).
Let's look at our QQ option. In this case, the bottom line is the opponent's, for us -1. The middle with two pairs is likely ours unless the opponent pulls 777 trips or a straight, so the middle +1 in our favor. The top +1 with QQ. At this moment, it's very important that all AAs are already out. The only way for him to beat our QQ is to pull the remaining two Ks. So, we have +1 point and another +7 for QQ on top and on average fantasy +7. Total: 15 points.
To fully calculate everything, we need to know how many points we would lose if we don't catch our QQ. So -6 overall and another -4 for the opponent's flush at the bottom. We have all the necessary numbers.
Calculating: 15 x 0.49 + -10 x 0.51 = 7.35 – 5.1 = 2.25.
So in the long run, our aggressive decision will earn 3.25 points more than our cautious line.
Of course, it's impossible to learn all situations by heart or calculate each situation during the game due to lack of time. With this article, we wanted to show you as simply as possible how to generally analyze situations and look for the right decisions.
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