How to win at betting?
“How to make money from betting?” is one of the most frequently asked questions about betting. Betting is an activity based on probabilities, statistics, and rational justification. Most bettors lose money in the long run, with only a few percent of bettors able to profit from this activity. Those who dedicate a lot of time to information analysis, statistical reviews, and carefully select the most suitable and valuable bets are the ones who win the most in this field.
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This happens for a simple reason – variance. Since betting and odds are determined by probabilities, even knowing absolutely all the possible information relevant to a bet, it will not always be possible to win. Variance means that even experts in this field experience long streaks of losses (and wins).
Of course, betting professionals and experts can easily reduce variance because they know the best types of bets, the most suitable bets, and have a lot of experience. Unlike other probabilistic games (poker or casino gambling), information in betting directly increases the bettor's advantage and reduces long-term variance.
The path to consistent profit from betting and wagering is long and difficult, but achievable. Being a betting professional has many unexpected advantages. For example, it is a job that can be done from anywhere. A betting professional is not tied to one place of residence (or even country), so they can travel freely. For many people, it will be even more important that the profit of a betting professional is much less limited than any other job. The theoretical profit ceiling in the long run is very high, but of course, reaching it will require a lot of hard work.
Betting, winnings, and EV
One of the most important principles that every betting professional must learn and know is “EV” (expected value). This is an abstract concept indicating how much is expected to profit from a bet if it were made an infinite number of times. For example, if someone offered 3:1 odds on a coin toss, then the EV would be positive. It is possible to lose many times in a row with such a bet, but as the number of tosses increases, the probability of overall profit would also increase.
Of course, calculating the true expected value of a bet in betting will be much more complicated than in the example above. When betting on match winners, total points, or similar, EV will be much more abstract. However, this concept is very useful in cases where new bets with clearer probabilities are being tested. For example, at the beginning of a football match, a coin is tossed to decide which team will get the ball (depending on the choice of the football team captain). If a betting company offers the possibility of such a bet, then using the odds to calculate the EV of such a bet is easy.
In more complex cases, it is best to compare the potential EV of several valuable types of bets. For example, in basketball, the most commonly used types of bets are match winner, totals, and handicap. For many beginners, it will be most valuable to choose one type of bet, even if all the odds seem attractive. The choice of bet should be determined by the implied EV – usually, it will be the bet with the highest probability. Only in exceptional cases should one of the mentioned bets be chosen based solely on the odds.
Regardless of the chosen betting field (sports, esports, or other events), there is a general simple strategy that every bettor should rely on. This strategy can be broken down into several parts, which we will discuss. EV is only a small part of the answer to the question “how to make money from betting?”
How to make money from betting? Money management principles
The first and probably the most important thing is money management (or bankroll management). This term will be well known to people who have played poker. Bankroll management means the ability to manage money, separate finances for gambling, and another part for living and other important occasions. Knowing how to manage money is the most important preparatory part before becoming a professional in any field that depends on probabilities.
Beginners are advised to have an additional source of income. Betting is a marathon that requires investment, time, and experience, so expecting consistent profit from the first bets would be naive. A second source of income will make it much easier to live and have money for gambling and protect against unexpected and difficult months. Even for professionals, essentially, it does not hurt to have additional income that can protect the bankroll.
The second rule of money management is strict financial separation. Many bettors should start with small bets, so it is necessary to set aside an amount of money for at least a dozen bets. This money should be used only for betting. All other money should be used only for living. For beginners, it is best to allocate very small amounts, try strategies, gather information, and place a bet or two when it seems most beneficial.
After gaining betting experience and choosing the right field, a larger amount of money can be allocated for betting and work more actively towards long-term profit. Of course, the rule of financial separation must always apply. Even the highest-level professional cannot always work profitably in the short term, so starting to use money intended for living for betting will quickly lead to many problems.
Unlike poker, money management in betting is somewhat more flexible. In a more difficult financial situation or after a long losing streak, it is possible to simply reduce the amounts bet and still profit from betting.
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The principle of winning in betting – one field
A common mistake among beginners in betting is jumping between sports and fields. Betting money on football, basketball, American football matches randomly is a losing strategy. Gathering and processing information to calculate betting profitability is the basis of winning. Many betting professionals choose one or two sports that they know well and never bet money randomly in fields they do not understand and know.
Expertise in one sport or field is the second very important tool in a bettor's arsenal. For beginners, it is best to start not only with one sport but with one specific tournament or league of that sport. For example, if the EuroLeague has been followed for a long time, team strengths and players are familiar, it is best to choose EuroLeague betting. The NBA, of course, is the same basketball, so it may seem that understanding this sport allows choosing any league or tournament. However, every professional knows that profitable bets come from analyzing all possible details. These details will always differ significantly between leagues, as teams, players, average profitability, and so on will differ.
After choosing one specific betting field, every bettor should move on to gathering information. The most effective way is to find many websites or other sources where information about matches, results, teams, and forecasts is constantly updated. It is recommended to create a schedule and list of such websites and apps and check them daily. This way, it will be much easier and more convenient to gather large amounts of information and learn to process it to make profitable bets.
How to make money from betting? The best betting fields and types of bets
Betting professionals usually choose not only a few specific fields (sports) but also a type of bet. For beginners, it is always best to choose one type of bet in one specific field. One of the most popular, easiest to understand, and quite profitable bets is the match winner. The winner can often be reasonably predicted if all the necessary information is available.
Futbolas ir krepšinis yra pačios populiariausios lažybų sritys
Žinoma, statymas ant varžybų nugalėtojo ne visada yra pats geriausias. Atvejais, kai komandų pajėgos yra labai nelygios, koeficientai bus tokie prasti, jog pastačius pinigus už favoritą bus beveik neuždirbama. Tokiais atvejais lažybų profesionalai naudoja pranašumo statymus (handicap).
Handicap statymai rodo, koks išankstinis pranašumas suteikiamas vienai komandai. Pavyzdžiui, -10 vienai iš krepšinio komandų reiškia, jog pinigai už statymą bus išmokami tik jei ši komanda laimės varžybas bent 10 taškų pranašumu. Pranašumas gali būti nurodytas teigiamai (+10). Tokiu atveju prie finalinio rezultato bus pridedami 10 taškų. Norint gauti išmoką už tokį statymą, minėtoji komanda turi pralaimėti ne didesniu nei 10 taškų skirtumu.
Galiausiai, vienas iš populiarių ir itin pelningų statymų yra suminiai (totals). Statymai visada būna Under/Over (mažiau nei/virš) pagal nurodytą varžybų pelningumą. Pastačius pinigus ant Over (virš), laimima tik tokiu atveju, jei viršijama nurodyta suminė (abiejų komandų) taškų suma. Beveik visada nurodoma dalinė taškų suma (pavyzdžiui, 150.5 krepšinio varžyboms) – lažybų bendrovės šitaip apsisaugo nuo lygiųjų (push). Pavyzdžiui, krepšinyje neįmanoma įmesti pusės taško, todėl visos varžybų taškų sumos bus virš arba žemiau nei nurodyta statyme.
Naujokams rekomenduojama naudotis nugalėtojo ir suminiais statymais, jei atliekamos krepšinio lažybos. Futbolo statymams geriausia naudotis azijietiškais pranašumais. Daugelyje sporto šakų geriausi statymai bus aukščiau išvardytieji, tačiau profesionalai visada gali rasti pelningų statymų kitose srityse. Pavyzdžiui, e-sportas yra mažai ištyrinėta lažybų sritis, todėl jame potencialus pelnas gali būti daug didesnis. Galbūt šioje srityje galima atrasti ne tik naujų pelningų statymų tipų, bet ir geriau išnaudoti tokius aspektus kaip gyvus statymus.
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Lažybų variacija ir psichologija
Daugelis naujokų ateina į lažybas tikėdamiesi greitų, paprastų ir didelių pinigų. Išskyrus labai neįtikėtinai sėkmingus atvejus, taip paprasčiausiai nebūna. Lažybos yra toks pat, o galbūt net sunkesnis, darbas nei dauguma. Visiems teks patirti ilgus sėkmės ar nesėkmės ruožus dėl paprasčiausios variacijos.
Lažybų didžiausias sunkumas dažnai bus ne informacijos radimas, jos apdorojimas, sisteminimas, bet variacija. Net puikiai išanalizavus visą medžiagą ir atsirinkus gerus statymus neretai bus pralaimima dėl paprasčiausių tikimybių. Neretai besilažinantys pradeda abejoti savo gebėjimais, galimybėmis laimėti ar savo strategija, o tai veda į sunkias emocines būkles arba lažybų metimą apskritai.
Variacijos įveikimas, šalto proto išlaikymas ir atkaklus darbas yra sunkiai įgyjamas įgūdis, tačiau būtinas norintiems pelnytis šioje srityje ilgą laiką. Pirmasis žingsnis, palengvinantis kelią, yra paprastas supratimas apie variaciją. Norint išsiaiškinti, ar strategija bei statymai yra pelningi, reikia dalyvauti lažybose daugybę kartų. Trumpalaikė sėkmė ar nesėkmė lažybose neturėtų niekaip paveikti naudojamos strategijos. Tik taikydami strategijas ilgą laiką galėsite sužinoti, kaip uždirbti iš lažybų.
Variacijos suvaldymui labai svarbus pinigų valdymas, ypač tiems, kuriems lažybos tampa pajamų šaltiniu. “Scared money” yra sąvoka naudojama pokeryje, tačiau ją galima pritaikyti ir lažybose. Po ilgų nesėkmės periodų ar praradus nemažą sumą pinigų per trumpą laiko tarpą, nemažai žaidėjų pradeda keisti strategiją ar atlikti statymus remiantis jausmais. Tokie veiksmai gali nuvesti tik prie dar didesnių pralaimėjimų.
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