Spain – Australia (1.6 odds – 2.4 odds, betsafe)
Both teams managed to overcome their favored opponents (Serbia and France respectively) in the group stages and secured the best possible opponents in the quarterfinals. The Spanish team confidently eliminated Poland in the quarterfinals with a score of 90-78, while the Australian team, shifting into a higher gear in the third quarter, also won by a 12-point margin, defeating the Czech Republic with a score of 82-70. Both teams are filled with veterans playing in solid European and NBA clubs, making this clash between giants undoubtedly one of the most interesting matches of the championship, with immense importance.
What are the strengths of these teams?
The main weapon of the Spanish team is the retention of the team's core and excellent mutual understanding among the players. Few teams can boast such cohesion as this Spanish team, which has been playing together for years both in clubs and during national team camps. Although many experts had written off this team from contending for the top spots before the championship, and indeed, they did not play very well in the first group stage, the Spanish team showed its true colors when the crucial matches came.
The match against Serbia, which Spain won 81-69, was very important for gaining greater confidence and assurance. The Spanish team also uses one of the longest rotations in the tournament, so physically, this team should be one of the freshest compared to other semifinal participants.
The Australian team, similar to the Spanish team, has been playing together for years, and the team's cohesion is at the highest level. The team atmosphere in this squad is also incredible, and this can be seen in every match, both after good and bad episodes. The “Boomers,” as the Australian team is called, have one of the strongest front lines in the championship, as well as excellent guards who have played significant roles in NBA teams at various stages of their careers.
P. Mills is a player on whom a large part of the Australian team's success depends. The well-known guard to all basketball fans can “ignite” at any moment during the match, and once he hits a couple of shots, stopping him can be incredibly difficult. The Lithuanian team experienced this firsthand, as Mills simply crushed them in the 4th quarter. A. Baynes' performance in the championship is also surprising – the tall player who previously played for the Lithuanian Rytas team and was called a bear by coach Kurtinaitis, is now playing in the NBA and has perfected his three-point shot, which has already punished several teams. It is hard to find weak spots in the Australian team's lineup, and it is not without reason that their chances in the semifinals are considered much better than what the bookmakers estimate.
Head-to-head history
The Spanish team has never lost to the Australian team, even though they have met 7 times. The last time Spain celebrated victory was in the 2016 Olympics, when they defeated Australia 89-88 in the match for 3rd place.
Prediction
Although bookmakers favor the Spanish team, this is not entirely agreeable. Both teams have similar strengths – strong front lines, top-level guards, but the Australians also have J. Ingles, who, as a small forward, can create plays for others and attack from the three-point line. Ingles should be the player who makes the crucial difference between the teams. Rubio spends the most time on the court in the tournament but lacks a stable long-range shot, and there have been instances in this championship where, when Claver and the Hernangomez brothers are on the court with him, there is a lack of stable long-range shooting. If the offense stalls for a few minutes against this Australian team, it can be very difficult to get back into the game. The 2.4 odds for Australia's victory tomorrow are significantly too high, and the chances of winning here are very similar, if not in favor of Australia.
