Fisherman's Challenge predictions - what are the chances of winning for TOP professionals?

The purpose of this short article is to calculate, in an amateurish way, the probabilities of which players have the best chance of grabbing the top prize in this year's Fisherman's Challenge. Of course, as with any attempt to predict the future using past data, inaccuracies arise from this fact alone.

It should be noted that these probabilities are also not completely mathematically precise. The formula for the calculation is as follows: the top 20 players are gathered from the Hendon Mob database, the average of the Global Poker Index Ranking is derived. This average is divided by each player's ranking. Each player is then awarded additional points if they have achieved a prize in any previous Fisherman's Challenge tournament, according to the formula (X-(N-1)/10), where X is the number of prize wins and N is the number of places. For example, a first place finish with 35 prize places will result in an additional 3.5 points.

Additional points are awarded to close the gap between players who have a low Global Poker Index Ranking but have consistently performed well in Fisherman's Challenge tournaments. Of course, such calculations cannot be a fully accurate reflection of reality, as it is impossible to collect absolutely all the data on players and to develop the appropriate mathematical tools to process it. The data presented below should be seen as a comparison with each other or as probabilities "at 1".

Players were selected based on their previous Fisherman's Challenge tournament finishes and recent live poker tournament activity.

The Betsafe Fisherman's Challenge starts this Thursday at the Olympic Casino Poker Club in Vilnius. It is the largest and most lucrative poker tournament series in Lithuania. More info - click here.

Tomas Jozonis*	96,98
Algirdas Saveikis	14,04
Alexander Voishnis	13,49
Dominykas Mikolaitis	11,72
Alexander Rusinov	11,14
Markas Kurliancikas	7,52
Agnius Ismailov	5,87
Povilas Jakutis	4,63
Gytis The Liar	3,74
Andrius Bielskis	3,51
Aivaras Kerušearring	3,35
Robert Žebrauskis	3,05
Gytis Bernatavičius	3,04
Justas Semaska	2,33
Vygerdas Jonikas	2,33
Andrius Kaziukonis	2,27
Boris Smushkevichčius	1,85
Vytautas Špakauskas	1,79
Liutauras Armanavičius	1,67
Karolina Daugėlaitė	0,65
Ričard Vymeris	0,52
RūIsmailova	0,34
Aistė Passkewčiūtė	0,31

* Tomas Jozonis has an incredibly high chance of finishing in the extremely high Global Poker Index Ranking of 268. The next closest person in this tournament, Alexander Voishny, is 2739th.