Zalgiris
Zalgiris Kaunas (13-9) will go into this game on the back of an impressive win over Valencia. An easy end to the game almost turned into a nightmare when, with 40 seconds left and leading by 7 points, Valencia took a one-point lead with just 3 seconds left after a three-pointer by S. Van Rossum. Nevertheless, Marius Grigonis showed why he is considered one of the best players this season at crucial moments and pulled out the win for Zalgiris with a tough two-pointer.
The Valencia game is really ambiguous: on the one hand, it is possible to say that the team showed a winning mentality and managed to close out a virtually lost game, but on the other hand, it is clear that with +7 with 40 seconds to play, it would have been possible to play more calmly and to avoid a dramatic end to the game. In this game it was noticeable how well Zalgiris moved on offense: only 17 three-pointers were made, of which 9 were made, showing that the shots were only taken from good positions and that the three-pointers were not misused.
After the game against Valencia, in which Lauvergne had a double-double (13 points, 12 rebounds), his contract was extended. We can remember the last time when B. Davies had his contract extended in the middle of the season. After the extension, he started to show even better results and became a clear team leader. It will be interesting to see if the contract extension will have an impact on the Frenchman's game.
Baskonia
Baskonia (9-13) has been playing in a very undulating way this season: a few wins in a row, then a few losses in a row, and history repeats itself. The Basques are currently on a run of 4 consecutive defeats (76-96 Ulker; 82-91 Maccabi; 77-84 Alba; 77-83 Lyon-Villeurbanne). The last 2 games against Alba and Asvel are very questionable, while the losses against the potentially stronger Ulker and Maccabi teams can be partially justified. Alba is currently 15th in the standings and Asvel is 14th. The team clearly lacks stability and a clear leader, a position that R. Giedraitis tried to fill at the beginning of the season, but has also been struggling lately.
A pleasant surprise for Baskonia this season has been the Italian A. Polonara, who is among the team's top scorers in every game and also among the players with the most rebounds. Although Polonara does not have a stable shot from three-point range, the 29-year-old light-heavy wing player uses his athleticism and his game under the basket.
It's hard to say where Baskonia's biggest problems are this season: it could be that the coaching staff is not doing its job or that the roster is weak, but in general the roster looks capable of fighting for a spot in the top 8 and performing better than what we are seeing now.
Forecast
The bookmakers consider Baskonia to be the favourite in this match, with odds of 1.6 for a win, while Zalgiris is offered 2.35. Looking at both teams and their recent performances, it is quite obvious that Zalgiris is going through a much better run and will go into the match in a more positive mood. Baskonia is a dangerous team, especially at home, but Zalgiris is undeservedly undervalued in this match and according to the odds offered, a bet on Zalgiris to win has value.
Zalgiris to win, 2,35 kof. betsafe
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