pokertracker-4-statistics-and-interpretation

Introduction

In this article you will learn:

How statistics should be interpreted correctly
Why statistics need to take context into account
On the dangers of hand count statistics

In the previous article you learned about statistical levels and the pyramid system and which statistics depend on which. The importance of the number of hands played for statistics and the principles of interpreting statistics were also explained. Even earlier I wrote about the the basics of statistics in poker and its importance and benefits.

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In this part, we will delve deeper into the statistics, learn how to interpret them and how to correctly take into account the number of hands played. In addition, you will learn what the interpretation chain is.

Read this article to find out why certain statistics with the same meaning can give a completely different picture of an opponent. Depending on the context, the meaning of a statistic can be interpreted in one way or another. In the examples we will give in this article, things like hand history, reads, or how the cards on the table influence your decisions will not be discussed.

Why, you ask? Well, because you need to familiarise yourself with the whole process of thinking about how things work, i.e. trying to understand the various formulae and figures, rather than relying on your hunches.

Two levels of interpretation

To interpret the poker support programs (e.g. PokerTracker 4 via HoldemManager 2) statistics in a given situation, you need to build a complex chain of interpretations. This means that you interpret the statistics in each round of betting, where each interpretation has two levels. At the first level, you have to check the relationship of the statistic with other relevant statistics.

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At the second level, you interpret the results based on the current situation. This includes the previous interpretations and the remaining betting rounds. Realistically, this second level is the actual interpretation of the conclusion you have drawn before about the statistics. This level also includes the overall context (cards on the table, hand history, table dynamics, reads, the meta-game, etc.), so always pay attention to the current situation.

Level 1: Context chain formation

You have to simulate a certain number of statistics, taking into account other relevant statistics in the same or other betting rounds.

Level 2: Interpret the contextual chain in a play situation

Once all this is done, you have a chain interpretation node for one betting round. If this sounds a bit unclear, let me explain further. If you are playing on the flop, your decisions are usually based on pre-flop actions. On the turn, you base your decisions on the pre-flop and flop actions, and so on. So each round of betting is like a node, and these nodes form a complex chain of interpretation.

The figure below illustrates the structure of the interpretation chain. As you can see, each cell (or node) connects to the next cell. This shows that when making a decision, you not only have to base your decision on the statistics from the previous betting rounds, but you also have to take into account the next betting rounds.

Why should we interpret statistics? Is this necessary?

Poker is, and always will be, a game where you don't have all the information you need, even though you have all the statistics right in front of you. A player's mood, tilt, distractions and other factors can make him play in a completely different way than he normally would. So, depending on the type of player, it is usually dangerous to rely on statistics alone.

So it's not just the cards dealt, but also the style of play of the opponents that influences variation. However, based on the statistics, you can see what the average playing style of a given player is.

Experienced players can predict the approximate cards a player has just by observing him and analysing his play. They can see how often the opponent likes to take risks in certain situations, whether he is tilt, whether they have played against each other or against other players at the table, whether he is in good or bad shape, etc.

So you should always take these meta-game factors into account when interpreting stats, if your style of play or the limits you play within allow it.

So, as you can see, there are many things you need to take into account in order to rely on statistics. And the stronger your opponents are and the further you move away from ABC poker, the more important all these factors become.

We will now look at a structured thought process: the chain of interpretation.

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Interpretation chain and opponent's card range

What is an interpretation chain?

In previous articles, we've given a cursory overview of statistics, but now you'll see how they connect to each other.

Interpretation chains do not have a fixed definition - they must be formed each time, depending on the opponent, the situation and the number of hands played. The examples you will see below are provided so that the next time you sit down at the tables, you will be able to form your own interpretation chain.

The interpretation chain will not only help you to draw conclusions about the betting round you are in, but also help you to form a plan for your hand in subsequent betting rounds, i.e. what actions you plan to take in certain cases in subsequent betting rounds with your hand.

The basic rule here is to focus on your opponent's actions when you are in position, and pay attention to your opponent's reaction when you are out of position.

In the context of statistics

When you look at statistics, you also have to take into account the context, i.e. you have to look at other important statistics on which other statistics depend.

The first level stats VPIP and PFR are a great example of how these stats are closely correlated, and at the same time give you an idea of your opponent's pre-flop style of play, and the opponent's range of cards on the flop (again, of course, but you can only use these stats when you have played enough hands). The VPIP minus the PFR gives you the opponent's calling range.

Example 1:

Pre-flop: VPIP - PFR - calling range

What to look out for:

The smaller the difference between VPIP and PFR (e.g. opponent with 18/16), the...

more aggressive opponent plays his hands pre-flop.
more often than not, the opponent has the initiative on the flop.
the less often the opponent makes passive calls pre-flop and the lower his calling range.

The bigger the difference between VPIP and PFR (e.g. opponent with 20/10), the...

more passive opponent play pre-flop.
Less often, the opponent has the initiative on the flop.
the more often the opponent makes passive calls pre-flop and the larger his calling range.

These three statistics are a good indication of how they are related and what conclusions you can draw about your opponent's hand range on the flop.

All of these relationships are an important aspect of interpreting statistics in context. These relationships form a long chain of relationships where everything can be interpreted differently, i.e. depending on your previous interpretations, you can come to completely different conclusions when the values of the statistics are the same. This is the basic principle of the context chain.

But always remember: even if you have all these statistics in front of you, poker is still a game where you will never have all the information you need.

Building on the basic interpretations of the first level of pre-flop statistics, in this example we will show the second level of the context chain, i.e. the important flop statistics.

Flop: cbet - fold to cbet - raise cbet - AF - WTS

What to look out for:

The more aggressive your opponent is pre-flop, the more often he is in a situation where he can cbet on the flop.
The more passive an opponent is pre-flop, the more often he is in a situation where his opponent cbet on the flop.
The more aggressive (AF) your opponent plays, the more often he will bet on the flop.
The more passive (AF) your opponent plays, the less likely he is to bet on the flop.
The higher your opponent's WTS (Went To Showdown), the less likely he is to fold on the flop.
The lower your opponent's WTS, the more likely he is to fold on the flop.

These basic principles are probably not new to you. However, by using the chain of interpretation, you can already draw quite sophisticated conclusions on the flop. Many players have a style of play from which they rarely deviate. The worse a player is, the more faithful he is to his style of play. So you can always spot when your opponent makes a move that is not typical of his playing style.

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Example 2:

Take two very similar situations. You play a hand against opponent A and another hand against opponent B. Your opponents make the same raises from MP position and you call a raise from BU position with pocket pairs. On the flop, you are in position and both opponents make a test bet. Now you have to interpret the test bet statistics. To do this, you must use the context chain.

The numerical value of the test statistic for both opponent A (18/16) and opponent B (20/10) is 75%. Now consider what this value, which is the same for both opponents, tells you about the range of the cards of both opponents, if you apply the basic principles of interpretation level in flop and pre-flop discussed earlier.

Opponent A (18/16, 75% cbet)
Opponent B (20/10, 75% cbet)

Since Opponent A plays more aggressively pre-flop and is much more likely to make a continuation bet, his range of cards in this situation is not very limited. In contrast, opponent B is more passive pre-flop, which means that he bets and overbids less frequently. So, as a result, opponent B will usually have a stronger range of cards in these situations than opponent A. Compare PFR 10% and PFR 16%. Opponent B is less likely to bluff with a continuation bet, even though the numerical values of both opponents' cbet statistics are the same.

This simple example illustrates how the same isolated statistic (in this case the cbet statistic with a numerical value of 75%) is interpreted differently and can lead to different conclusions about the strength of the opponent's range. So, as you can see, in such cases other statistics always need to be taken into account.

Of course, you should not only pay attention to the value of the cbet statistic, but at the same time you should also look at other important statistics on the level of interpretation on the flop in order to have a plan for the next betting rounds. So you should already be thinking about how you want to play this hand using the interpretations you have made on the flop.

Opponent A (18/16, 75% cbet, AF 3.0, WTS 35%)
Opponent B (20/10, 75% cbet, AF 1.5, WTS 50%)

In this case, since opponent B is usually more passive, this means that you will get less action from him, e.g. semi-bluffs etc. Since opponent B usually has a stronger range of cards than opponent A when he cbet on the flop, another ongoing bet on the turn from opponent B should look much more serious than another bet on the turn from opponent A.

If we now interpret the numerical value of the cbet, but also include the AF and WTS statistics, opponent B, who has a cbet flop statistic of 75%, but an AF of only 1.5, will usually be the most aggressive on the flop.

In this case, your plan on the turn should be: if Opponent B gives you more action on the turn, you fold your pocket pair, or you can check in position for a free card, or you can float, but this will not always be a good idea because your opponent's WTS is 50%. It's worth noting that in this case, you can also use other stats such as I turn cbet or flop AF and turn AF to make your decision.

As you already know, the higher the statistical level, the higher the number of hands played. So, in order to rely on a statistic such as turn cbet, remember that the number of hands played must be of the appropriate size.

All of these considerations are purely based on first-level statistics, but we will briefly explain how to interpret them on the basis of second-level statistics.

As you saw in the previous example, AF and WTS statistics are very useful on the flop, but they just give overall values that are not dependent on the flop alone. You could say that high AF and low WTS, or low AF and high WTS, are relative to each other. This is because aggressive players are more likely to win hands by using fold equity and not going to showdown, which lowers the WTS statistic.

When interpreting AF and WTS stats, it is very important to take into account the first level pre-flop stats (VPIP, PFR, calling range) because, as you probably already know, the WTS stats are related to the range of the flop cards.

What to look out for based on WTS statistics:

The higher the WTS stats, the greater the range of the opponent's cards in the showdown.
The lower the opponent's range on the flop, the higher his range on the showdown with the same WTS.
The higher your opponent's range on the flop, the weaker your opponent's range will be in a showdown with the same WTS.
The higher the AF, the lower the WTS.
The lower the AF, the higher the WTS.

Next article: Statistics in Poker - Level 2 Interpretation.