Betting tips

Sports Betting Strategies - Basic Principles

Sports betting is the most popular form of betting. With football and basketball alone accounting for more than 50% of all bets, profitable betting systems and sports betting strategies have been developed over time. There are many of these strategies, but they are all based on just a few principles.

All strategies are based on probability calculations and the concept of EV. EV, in simple terms, is the calculation of whether a bet would be profitable in the long term. For example, if the amount is doubled, the bet would have to occur more than 50% times to be profitable.

Another important aspect of betting strategy is implied probability. This term refers to the probabilities assigned by the betting company. ((1/coefficient) * 100 = probability). For the sake of clarity, here is one example:

Bayern: 1.65 

Zalgiris: 2.45

Extension: 14.00

Bayern's probability of winning: (1/1,65) * 100 = 60,6%

Zalgiris' probability of winning: (1/2,45) * 100 = 40,8%

Extension: (1/14) * 100 = 7%

All probabilities add up to a number greater than 100%. Betting companies obviously need to make money by compiling the odds, so the percentages add up to more than 100%. Sometimes the fraction exceeding 100 per cent is referred to by gamblers as "juice". The lower the percentage, the better for the gambler.

Once these probabilities have been calculated, it is easy to calculate the EV of each bet. It is recommended to choose a simple bet amount (e.g. €10) to make the calculation easier. To calculate the EV of any bet, gamblers use the following formula:

(Profit in case of winning * probability) - (Amount bet lost in case of losing * probability of losing)

If the result is negative, it means the bet is -EV. Gamblers making such bets will lose more and more money over time. Of course, it is worth remembering that the probabilities are not objective, but calculated by the company. Companies can also make mistakes, so it is possible to find profitable -EV bets if you have a very good knowledge of betting, but this should be reserved for professionals of a very high standard.

EV and probability application are essential concepts for profitable betting. Every professional must know these concepts by heart and be able to apply them in practice. EV and probability calculations will be applied to all sports, e-sports and other events.

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Betting strategies, bet types and money management

All betting strategies, although based on probabilities and EVs, will be essentially the same. Betting is a relatively straightforward area when viewed from a distance. You just need to gather information, process it, find +EV bets and have enough money.

Of course, if it were that simple, all betting companies would quickly go bankrupt. While the strategy looks quite simple in the big picture, when you start to analyse the details, things are a little different.

Every gambler needs to constantly gather information about his or her chosen fields. It is impossible to have a profitable betting strategy if all the information gathered consists of 3 Euroleague matches watched with friends. Betting professionals create a daily schedule during which they look at potentially profitable bets, gather all the sports information that may be needed and participate in betting where appropriate.

The types of bets are also linked to the betting strategy. In many places you will find some of the same popular bets on any given sport. These bet types are extremely popular for several reasons - good odds, easy EV calculation and simplicity. The most popular bets are the winner, the aggregate (total score of the match) and the advantage (handicap, a notional point advantage given to one of the teams).

Handicap are some of the most difficult bets to place, but can also be some of the most profitable. Companies often disagree on what the true advantage of one team is, so it is very common to see discrepancies between the odds and advantages offered by companies. Although the calculations here are the most complex, it is possible to find some very good offers if you look at all companies.

Finally, one of the most important aspects of profitable betting is bankroll management. Simply put, since betting is a probability-based source of profit, no bet can be expected to be lost. This means that there can be long losing streaks just because of simple mathematics, even when playing with a profitable strategy. In betting, it is always necessary to allocate a separate amount for betting and to use it only for that purpose.

It is recommended that all future betting professionals have a second source of income, at least for a while. This will greatly ease the burden of losing and will always allow you to return to betting later. Without a second source of money, betting becomes a necessary field from which to take a break. It is not recommended for newcomers.

Betting tips - some simple principles for newcomers

While many new bettors place bets just for fun, those who want to try to make a profit in this field should follow a few simple betting tips and principles. These principles, of course, simplify the betting strategy and will therefore not be the most effective, but they are perfect for those who need simplicity.

For newcomers, it's important to choose competitions that have no emotional aspect. All basketball fans want to make profitable bets on their favourite team, but this is probably the biggest trap for newcomers. All bets should be made on the basis of statistics, knowledge and common sense. Betting on your favourite team is usually based on emotion and should be avoided.

It is also important for newcomers to take their time when placing bets. Professionals can handle a larger number of profitable bets as they have the necessary knowledge and the right amount of money for the long term. A novice just needs to place a few bets, carefully analyse the choice, the reasons for winning (or losing) and draw conclusions. In this way, the newcomer can form his/her own strategy, gain useful experience and not waste a lot of money.

Finally, betting should be seen as an area where you will have to spend a lot of time. While it is possible to win one bet after another completely blindly, betting profitability does not happen overnight. Professionals only ever look at the long-term results, tracking their ROI (return on investment) to measure their performance. Newcomers should be prepared to spend a lot of time in betting, so the most effective way to start is to gather information rather than placing bets.

Bets - tips for gathering information

Information, in the broadest sense, is the most important part of profitable betting. Although many bets are placed simply by choosing your favourite team or a fun upcoming match, such bets are only profitable for the company.

The collection of information can be broken down into several parts - the field, specific events, bet types and potentially profitable bets. The field is the simplest element - it is simply the chosen sport. As mentioned earlier, it is recommended that newcomers choose just one. It is best to choose one whose competition is viewed as a leisure activity. The variation of bets can also be facilitated by selecting a specific league or tournament (for example, Euroleague or NBA for basketball, but not both).

Professionals watch the competitions in their field every morning, but this is not necessary for novices. Newcomers can wait for potentially highly profitable events that may appear once a week or perhaps even less. Being able to pick and choose the bets and forming a good, disciplined strategy will be more important to a newcomer in the long run than a slightly higher profit at the beginning of his career. We have already discussed the principles of finding profitable bets a little earlier.

We have also discussed the categorisation of bet types in a broad sense, but it is important to mention the context of the event. The context of the event is of minimal importance for only one bet type (winner), and of great importance for all others. For example, the style of play of the teams is particularly important for a totals bet. Aggressive, profitable teams will obviously tend to score significantly more points in a single match than those that play a more defensive game. Aggressive play will be much more likely to exceed the aggregate betting requirement.

Similar rules apply to advantage and many other bets. In advantage bets, one team needs to win by a certain point advantage to win the bet. In such bets it is not only the balance of power that counts, but also the style of play, the defensive/offensive edge and many other factors.

Some betting professionals use other types of bets - point totals before the long break, team victories in individual games (corresponding bets can be found in almost all sports). In such cases, the context of the match changes again. In the case of bets on the point total before the long break, the average profitability of the teams in the first half of the match, the attacking ability of the starting five, and so on, will be much more important.

Betting, stakes, predictions and communities

It is useful for all learners to have outside sources of information - communities, other professionals and betting predictions. Fortunately, these days the internet makes such searches much easier. It is easy to find many Discord channels, websites or forums where betting professionals share their experiences.

For professionals and newcomers alike, it is always useful to have a community around the activity. The biggest benefit will always be the discussions, strategies and the opportunity to find more profitable bets based on the advice of others, but other factors should not be underestimated. For example, after a long stretch of bad luck and the negative emotions it brings, it will be much easier to have a community where all betting experiences are discussed. 

Many of these communities are easy to find with a few Google searches. Of course, you should always look for ones where adding newcomers doesn't make any money for the page. Many online betting tips websites will offer information for money. Such sites usually just want to take people's money by offering 'betting secrets' or 'guaranteed profits on bets'. Such communities or information providers should simply be avoided. There are plenty of free pages, channels and chat rooms on the internet where you won't have to spend a penny.

The Poker School's betting section provides all the information you need for free. It is constantly updated with betting and staking guides, predictions and all other relevant information. The Poker School should be your first source of information, but a betting professional should have at least several sources. For newcomers, it is easiest to ask for recommendations from betting professionals, but of course some can find pages on their own. In this case, it is recommended to find a dozen (or at least close to 10) pages, communities or chat rooms and, over time, weed out the worst or least active ones. This will, over a period of time, result in a small list of the most valuable pages and other sources of information that can be reviewed quickly and efficiently.

Betting and profitable bets - a long way off

Although many betting companies and betting enthusiasts present this field as a quick way to make a lot of money, the road to steady earnings is usually a long one. Thinking that betting is a quick way to get rich only hurts the gambler and makes money for the company. Newcomers should not be daunted by the fact that there are many different pieces of information, mathematics and other aspects that are necessary for a profitable game. The more information in the hands of the gambler, the better the chances of winning.

Of course, the road to profitable betting is not only long, but also, perhaps, difficult. Every professional's steps in this field have been fraught with wrong bets or miscalculations, but it happens to everyone. Nowadays, it is even easier for newcomers to get started on the road to profitable betting, as there are many guides, information sources and professionals who can share their wisdom. It is no longer necessary to find ways to play the company yourself - everything can be found online.

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